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CITIC Securities: This round of AI is more like the electricity and new energy cycle, rather than the internet bubble.

MarsBitNews
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Mars Finance news: a CITIC Securities research report believes that this round of AI trading from June 2025 to date, compared with the analogy of the 2000 internet (PC/network) cycle, is actually more like the 2021 new energy cycle. The current AI is equivalent to the new energy cycle in mid-2021; upstream dynamic PE has not yet collapsed, and performance expectations have only just begun to be raised. The “peak” signals include four items: (1) prices for the “least scarce” commodities have topped (2021’s electrolytes = today’s silicon wafers), (2) downstream sees broad-based price increases and cost complaints, (3) the disclosure density of overseas Capex increases, and (4) the collapse of crowding/dispersion. Among upstream varieties with low valuations and tight supply, the later it goes, the higher the cost-effectiveness. Currently, it is also more bullish on downstream-oriented varieties—favoring, within silicon-based areas, the storage chain, gas turbine chain, optical modules, PCB, and cloud providers—along with carbon+silicon computing metals, fluorine chemical industry, and phosphorus chemical industry.
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