## Gold Morning Report | 6/30

**Key Data**
- XAU $4,014 (-1.84%) | AU9999 ¥884/gram (-0.31%)
- Recycling price ¥875-880/gram | Brand jewelry stores ¥1,235-1,240/gram
- Bank gold bars ¥901-907/gram | Shuibei wholesale ¥1,057/gram

**Overnight Highlights**
- Gold price accelerated its decline, briefly approaching the $4,000 mark (lowest $4,000.43), then rebounded slightly
- Down approximately 28% from ATH of $5,594, weekly trend remains under pressure
- U.S. Dollar Index hovering at 101.3 high; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.45% → holding cost of gold continues to rise
- U.S.-Iran talks in Doha today; if they collapse → safe-haven spike; if an agreement is reached → further pressure on gold

**Key Levels**
- Support: $4,000 (critical line) → if broken, look at $3,800-3,900
- Resistance: $4,050 → $4,098 → $4,200
- Domestic: ¥880 support → ¥860-870 (if broken)

**Key This Week**
- 7/1 PCE inflation data + ADP non-farm payrolls → will determine direction of rate hike expectations
- 7/3 Non-farm payrolls → short-term gold price direction indicator
- Result of U.S.-Iran Doha talks

**Strategy**
- Short-term: Repeated tug-of-war around $4,000, do not chase shorts or pick a bottom
- Allocation: Below ¥880, consider phased accumulation of bank gold bars
- Risk: PCE exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations strengthen → could break $4,000