My real trading plan — How to bet on Brazil vs Japan?

Based on all available information, my betting plan is as follows:

Main position: Japan +1 (handicap of one goal). I believe it's difficult for Brazil to win by two or more goals. Japan's defensive discipline and their resilience shown in the group stage point to a match decided by a one-goal margin or less. The current odds are around 1.85, offering decent value.

Secondary position: Total goals under 2.5. It's highly likely that the knockout stage will be conservative. Japan doesn't seek possession, and Brazil will find it tough to score freely against a compact defense. I estimate the probability of this outcome to be over 60%.

Small position: Draw. The implied probability is about 18%, but I believe the actual probability of a draw is around 25%. Japan has the ability to drag the match into extra time or even a penalty shootout.

Tiny position: Japan pulls off an upset win. The implied probability is about 15%, and last year's 3-2 victory proves Japan has the capability. 667. No regrets if I lose; it'll be a genius prediction if I win.

Total investment controlled within 15% of total funds.

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U