Does institutional quarterly rebalancing trigger ongoing weakness in AI US stocks? Quick breakdown of the $165 billion sell-pressure pressure point

BlockBeats News, June 29 – Multiple analysts have recently warned: Due to quarterly rebalancing needs, U.S. stocks will face a $165 billion sell-off from large institutions at the end of June. According to JPMorgan's analysis, the selling pressure mainly comes from the following five major institutional pools:

U.S. Fixed-Income Pension Funds: Managing approximately $9.6 trillion in assets, expected to contribute about $55 billion in stock sales (due to their relatively loose rebalancing discipline, typically only executing partial rebalancing).

Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan: Managing approximately $1.9 trillion in assets, expected to sell about $60 billion in global stocks (while buying bonds).

Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund: Managing approximately $2.1 trillion in assets, expected to sell about $40 billion in stocks to return to its target allocation by the end of 2025.

Swiss National Bank: After the equity weight increased, expected to sell about $25 billion (less if the target weight is raised).

Balanced Mutual Funds: With approximately $4 trillion in assets, due to stricter monthly rebalancing discipline, there may be a small net purchase of stocks (about $15 billion) this month, partially offsetting the above selling pressure.

According to past public records, institutional selling pressure may be concentrated in the last few days of the quarter. Some of these funds will trade near the close, leading to noticeable selling pressure at the end of the session.

BlockBeats Note: Quarterly rebalancing mainly occurs because institutions have clear policy asset allocation targets, such as stocks 60%, bonds 40%. After a sharp rise in stocks during the quarter, the stock weight will exceed the target, triggering a rebalancing signal. Therefore, the recently surging AI stocks will be the primary targets for these institutions to reduce holdings.