Yen crashes to 40-year low, those holding BTC should really be worried.

Just saw the yen fall to a 40-year low, this is a signal!
USD/JPY broke through the previous high to 161.95, surpassing the highest level since December 1986. Actually, the exchange rate number itself is not the key point. The key point is: the yen is the cheapest funding currency in the world. For decades, market traders have been borrowing yen to convert into dollars to buy everything that goes up — U.S. stocks, gold, BTC. This carry trade structure has expanded to the point that no one can precisely estimate its scale.
Now the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates, yet the yen is depreciating, indicating that the market simply doesn't believe the BOJ can keep pace with the Fed. But the BOJ won't tolerate this forever. Once it verbally intervenes or raises rates unexpectedly in July, all positions funded by yen borrowing must reverse — sell assets, repay yen.
August 2024 already demonstrated this. A surprise rate hike from the BOJ sent BTC from 60K to 49K, liquidating $1.1 billion in 24 hours, and wiping out $600 billion from the crypto market.
And that was just a small hike. Today's environment is more fragile than back then: BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of $4 billion for six consecutive weeks, with liquidity already dried up.
If the BOJ strikes at this critical moment, it would be ETF outflows combined with carry unwind — both floodgates opening at once.
Gold's role in this scenario is relatively better. In past experiences, during the first few hours of yen intervention, gold gets sold indiscriminately along with all other assets. But after that wave passes, gold's safe-haven attribute kicks in, pulling prices back up. This "first drop then rise" rhythm has been repeatedly verified in every major yen fluctuation over the past two years.
So now we need to watch the BOJ's moves. Every day it stays silent, the carry trade lives another day. Once it speaks, the yen jumps → risk assets get dumped en masse → BTC leads the decline → BTC then drags down the entire crypto market's risk appetite → gold briefly gets drained before rebounding.
This is a potential macro factor, and AI can be used to monitor the BOJ's dynamics.
$BTC