The yen has crashed to a 40-year low. Those who should really be worried are the ones holding BTC.

Just saw the yen hit a 40-year low. This is a signal!
The USD/JPY exchange rate broke through the previous high, reaching 161.95, surpassing the highest level since December 1986. Actually, the exchange rate number itself is not the point. The key point is: the yen is the cheapest funding currency in the world. For decades, market traders have borrowed yen to exchange for dollars to buy everything that goes up — US stocks, gold, BTC. This arbitrage structure has expanded to the point where no one can precisely count its scale.
Now the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is raising interest rates, but the yen is depreciating, indicating that the market simply does not believe the BOJ can keep pace with the Fed. But the BOJ won't tolerate this forever. Once it intervenes verbally or raises rates unexpectedly in July, all positions built by borrowing yen will have to reverse — sell assets, repay yen.
August 2024 already demonstrated this. An unexpected BOJ rate hike crashed BTC from 60K to 49K, with $1.1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, and the crypto market losing $600 billion.
That was just a small increase. And today's environment is more fragile than back then: BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of $4 billion for 6 consecutive weeks, and liquidity was already dry.
If the BOJ acts at this critical juncture, it will be ETF drain plus carry unwind — two sluice gates releasing water at the same time.
Gold's role in this scenario is okay. In past experiences, during the first few hours of yen intervention, gold will be indiscriminately sold off along with all assets, but after that wave of selling, gold's safe-haven properties will kick in and pull the price back. This "first fall then rise" pattern has been repeatedly verified in every major yen fluctuation over the past two years.
So now we need to monitor the BOJ's moves. For every day it stays silent, the carry trade gets one more day of life. Once it speaks, the yen jumps → risk assets sell off in unison → BTC leads the decline → BTC drags down the entire crypto market's risk appetite → gold briefly gets drained then recovers.
This is a potential macro factor. AI can be used to monitor the BOJ's dynamics
$BTC