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SemiAnalysis: The latest US economic data contains a lot of noise, and AI infrastructure is still in full swing.

MarsBitNews
Mars Finance News, June 29 - SemiAnalysis stated that recent U.S. economic data contains significant noise. The upward revision of Q1 GDP was mainly due to reduced imports; one-third of the personal income growth in May came from one-time farm relief; the surge in PCE inflation was driven by energy prices; and the sharp decline in durable goods orders resulted from a reversal in aircraft orders. These special factors are all subject to mean reversion. After stripping them out, the overall economic picture shifts. Tariff-induced goods inflation is a one-time price level shock that will fade from year-over-year data after about 12 months, but consumers' real purchasing power is permanently reduced and will not recover as inflation falls. Goods inflation has now surpassed services inflation, reflecting the pass-through effect of tariffs. SemiAnalysis believes that despite macro data volatility, AI capital expenditure is a real and sustained trend. In Q1 GDP, equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points, four times the consumer contribution. Core capital goods orders grew by 1.6%, and AI data center construction is rapidly expanding its share of the economy, showing no sign of mean reversion.
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