SemiAnalysis: The latest US economic data contains a lot of noise, but AI infrastructure is still in full swing.

BlockBeats News, June 29 - SemiAnalysis stated in a post that there is significant noise in the latest U.S. economic data. The upward revision of Q1 GDP was mainly due to a decrease in imports, one-third of the May personal income growth came from one-time farm relief, the surge in PCE inflation was driven by energy prices, and the sharp decline in durable goods orders was caused by a reversal in aircraft orders. These special factors will all revert to the mean, and after stripping them out, the overall economic picture has shifted.

The goods inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time price level shock, which will drop out of year-over-year data after about 12 months. However, consumers' real purchasing power is permanently reduced and will not recover as inflation falls. Goods inflation has now surpassed services inflation, reflecting the pass-through effect of tariffs.

SemiAnalysis believes that despite macroeconomic data fluctuations, AI capital expenditure is a real and sustained trend. In Q1 GDP, equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points, four times the contribution from consumers. Core capital goods orders grew by 1.6%, and AI data center construction is rapidly expanding its share of the economy, which will not revert to the mean.