1. Long-Short Probability

Overall short win rate is 65%, the rebound is a short-term repair, and the major trend is downward.
NASDAQ futures are slightly higher before the open, which will bring a brief long-side surge, but it is difficult to sustain strength, and it is more likely to fall after the surge.

2. Two Phases of the Opening

1. First 30 minutes after open (washout phase, 35% bullish)
Driven by the higher open of US stocks, ETH is likely to surge and test the resistance at 1595–1600, specifically to sweep stop-losses.
This is also the biggest risk for your positions. Once 1600 is pierced, high-leverage short positions will be stopped out directly.
2. Second half after open (main phase, 65% bearish)
After the sentiment is fully priced in, buying power wanes, the price comes under pressure and falls back, retesting the first take-profit target at 1550.
The bearish structure on the 12-hour and 4-hour timeframes has not reversed. There is no incremental capital to sustain the rebound, so the rally has very poor continuity.

1. As long as the surge cannot hold above 1600, hold your positions and wait patiently for the pullback;
2. If it quickly pierces 1600 with a wick, do not stubborny hold; prioritize reducing positions to avoid stop-losses;
3. As long as the price holds above 1610, the short-term bearish trend is invalidated; exit all positions and wait and see.

4. Core Summary

The most likely scenario is that after US stocks open, they will surge to wash out shorts, then turn around and decline. The bearish main trend remains unchanged.
Strictly defend the unified stop-loss at 1600. If it is not broken, hold and wait for phased take-profits: 1550 → 1534 → 1507.