#广场预测世界杯赢40000U Three Bold Predictions for Tomorrow's World Cup Matches: Brazil and Germany to Win, Morocco Could Pull Off an Upset

Three Bold Predictions for Tomorrow's World Cup Matches: Brazil and Germany to Win, Morocco Could Pull Off an Upset
June 29, 2026 The flavor of the knockout stage officially begins tomorrow. Three matches, three stories, one by one.

01. Brazil vs. Japan, June 30, 01:00
Houston
Japan chose Brazil themselves. In the final group stage match, if Japan had drawn with Sweden, they could have advanced as the third-place team in their group to avoid Brazil in the knockout stage, and even faced a weaker opponent on paper in the first round. But Hajime Moriyasu didn't do that. The team went all out, drew 1-1 with Sweden, finished second in the group, and then—landed directly in front of Brazil. "Brazil is highly rated in the football world, and Japan is not, that's only natural. It may be laughed at, but our goal is to win the World Cup. This time we are serious," Moriyasu said before the match.
Japan has a fatal weakness: zero wins in World Cup knockout matches. They have played four knockout matches and lost all. In 1998 they lost to Turkey, 2002 to Turkey, 2010 to Paraguay, and 2022 to Croatia. Japan seems to become a different team in the knockout stage—the technique is still there, but the mentality collapses. An even bigger problem: Takefusa Kubo has a knee injury, and it's questionable whether he can play. Without Kubo's link-up play, forwards Daizen Maeda and Ayase Ueda lose half their ammunition. Japan's defense, facing Brazil's Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha, is already operating at its limit.
On Brazil's side, Carlo Ancelotti has stabilized the defense. Compared to October last year when they were overturned, this Brazil has Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães as the center-back pair, with Danilo returning to right-back. Raphinha has a hamstring injury and can't play, but Bournemouth's young player Rayan has stepped up and performed decently in the group stage against Scotland. The most critical point: Vinícius Júnior.

02. Germany vs. Paraguay, June 30, 04:30
Monterrey
There's not much to debate here. The numbers speak: Germany averaged 58% possession in the group stage, 16 shots per game, and Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz together created 11 key passes. Hansi Flick has tuned Germany's rhythm to a very comfortable gear—high pressing, quick transitions, wingers cutting inside. This is not the Germany of 2002 that relied on Michael Ballack and Oliver Kahn to grind out results; this is a Germany that can control and attack. You've probably seen Paraguay's final group match against Australia: they walked around the pitch, 0-0, with only one shot on target combined. That wasn't tactics; it was tanking. The troubles don't end with form. Starting center-back Fabián Balbuena is suspended due to yellow cards, and substitute Gustavo Gómez turns as slow as a truck reversing. When Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry cut in from the wings, he's basically a background figure. Paraguay's only hope is set pieces. 35% of their goals in qualifying came from set pieces, and Miguel Almirón is genuinely good at drawing corners from his dribbles. But Germany has Antonio Rüdiger and Niklas Süle as center-backs, so set-piece defense isn't a weakness. The two teams met once in the round of 16 of the 2002 World Cup, with Oliver Neuville scoring a 1-0 winner. Twenty-four years later, the gap in strength is much larger than it was back then. Germany relied on luck back then; now they don't need to.

03. Netherlands vs. Morocco, June 30, 09:00
Monterrey
This is the most story-rich of the three matches. The Netherlands scored 10 goals in the group stage, making them one of the strongest attacking teams in the tournament. Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey scored five between them, and Ronald Koeman's 4-3-3 system is operating very smoothly. Frenkie de Jong collects and distributes the ball in midfield, Virgil van Dijk covers at the back, and Denzel Dumfries charges from right-back all the way into the box—a joy to watch.
But there's a problem: the Netherlands' defense conceded four goals in the group stage. That's a record for the most goals conceded by the Netherlands in a World Cup group stage. How did they concede? The space left on the right flank by Dumfries as he pushed forward was exploited repeatedly by Japan and Sweden. Koeman hasn't changed this approach because the Dutch attack relies heavily on full-back overlaps. Changing one link would break the whole system. And that gap happens to be the area Morocco excels at attacking. Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui patrol the flanks, and in five group matches, Morocco earned 31 corners—the Netherlands had only 22. This isn't luck; it's Morocco applying constant pressure on opponents' defenses with wing speed in every game. If the Netherlands continues to let Dumfries charge forward without tracking back, Hakimi will sprint through the space Dumfries leaves behind. Then there's Morocco's style. Coach Walid Regragui's template is very clear: against strong teams, they use a 5-4-1 low block, with Yassine Bounou in goal, Sofyan Amrabat holding in midfield, and Hakimi and Mazraoui responsible for the first long-distance transitions from defense to attack. Youssef En-Nesyri acts as a target man up front, while Brahim Díaz holds the ball in the attacking midfield position, waiting for opportunities. This system eliminated Spain and Portugal in the 2022 World Cup, reaching the semifinals. Four years later, the core structure remains, plus four more years of chemistry. The injury to Ez Abde is a loss, but not fatal. Morocco's attack has never relied on individual wing dribbling—it relies on the timing of counterattacks and the rhythm of sprints. The Netherlands is undoubtedly the better team.
But remember how the Netherlands was eliminated in the European Championship last year? They had 67% possession and 23 shots, then lost 1-0 to the Czech Republic. Koeman's Netherlands is rock solid against weak teams, but against counter-attacking teams—like Argentina in 2022 or the Czech Republic in 2024—they tend to get impatient first. Morocco is not a weak team. Reaching the semifinals last time was no fluke. If the Netherlands scores early, the match will end quickly. But if Morocco holds out for the first 30 minutes, the game will tilt in Morocco's direction. Extra time or even penalties are possible.

Three matches in summary:
Brazil vs. Japan—Japan has spirit and a story, but the hurdle of World Cup knockout matches isn't overcome by spirit alone.
Germany vs. Paraguay—A strength mismatch, nothing much to say. If Germany loses, it would be the biggest upset of the tournament.
Netherlands vs. Morocco—This match isn't a battle between strong and weak; it's a clash of two football philosophies. Last tournament's semifinalist vs. quarterfinalist, possession vs. counterattack, full-back vs. full-back.

If you can only watch one match, watch the third one.