Hello, crypto friends!

👋BTC spot is currently oscillating around $60,000. Seeing this level, many people are tempted to go all-in and buy the dip.$BTC $XRP $GT
✋ Don't rush! Based on the historical K-lines from Gate Exchange, I reviewed the key time and space data of past bull and bear cycles, and marked them on the weekly chart (see attached figure).
📊 Harsh comparison of historical cycles:
1️⃣ 2018 bear market: High 19,858 → Low 3,155 (decline 364 days, drop 84%)
2️⃣ 2022 bear market: High 69,000 → Low 15,468 (decline 378 days, drop 77%)
3️⃣ Current cycle (2026): High 126,193 → Low 58,106 (only 266 days of decline so far, drop 54%)
⚠️ Key finding: The previous two bear markets took an average of about 371 days, but we are only 266 days in, clearly insufficient in both time and space. If history repeats, the true bottom is likely still ahead:
⏳ In terms of time: estimated to need about another 105 days (likely to grind until mid-October 2026).
📉 In terms of space: the total drop may expand to 65%-70%.
🎯 Golden pit range: around 38,000 - 43,000 USDT.
🛡️ My pyramid position-building strategy (avoid missing out + control risk): The current oscillation is likely just a pause in the downtrend. However, considering on-chain data and institutional holding costs, I recommend a pyramid-style phased position building to reduce the risk of missing out:
Initial base (10%): around $60,000 (to prevent sudden upward reversal).
Add first (20%): below $55,000 (close to on-chain institutional average cost line).
Add second (30%): below $45,000 (entering obvious oversold value zone).
Heavy position zone (40%): below $40,000 (historic bottom area).
💎 Holding and take-profit logic: After buying, ignore short-term fluctuations and hold firmly until the next bull market price breaks back above $126,193, then consider reducing positions in batches to take profit. Summary: Don't catch a falling knife halfway down; patiently wait for both time and space to align.