Goldman Sachs: A pullback in U.S. stocks does not necessarily mean a market top is in place; tech stock weight has become a source of market pressure

BlockBeats News, June 29 - Goldman Sachs strategists said that the weakness in U.S. stocks this week appears more like a structural adjustment driven by large-cap tech stocks, rather than a clear signal of a market-wide peak.

As of Friday afternoon trading, the S&P 500 index was still likely to fall about 1.5% or more this week. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop facing the market is not entirely negative: oil prices fell about 10% this week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell more than 10 basis points to 4.37%, the core PCE inflation for May was largely in line with expectations, and Micron's earnings also showed that AI-related demand remains resilient.

What is truly dragging down the index is large-cap tech stocks. Goldman Sachs said that the seven major tech stocks generally fell between 3% and 8% this week, and due to their high market capitalization weight in the S&P 500, gains in other components were unable to offset this drag. Meanwhile, market breadth actually improved, with 8 of the 11 major sectors rising this week, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has outperformed the market-cap-weighted index so far this year.

This suggests that the market may be shifting from a "dominance by a few tech giants" pattern toward more diversified sector rotation. However, Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the AI investment cycle remains one of the risks most closely watched by investors. Currently, large internet companies are transitioning from asset-light to capital-intensive models, and while the market has rewarded this transformation, it is also increasingly concerned about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures.

The report noted that the market has not yet seen clear signs of a slowdown in AI capital spending, but consensus expectations indicate that capital intensity may peak this year or next. Goldman Sachs also said that the scale of AI investment has now approached, or may even exceed, the peak of tech investment in the 1990s.

Goldman Sachs's conclusion is not to exit the market, but rather to advise investors to continue focusing on assets with upward earnings momentum. This round of correction appears more like a pressure release in a highly concentrated market, rather than a confirmation signal of the end of the bull market.