View Summary: Bitcoin may be in a periodic bottoming phase, focusing on the key turning window from July to October

Mars Finance News, on June 29, as Bitcoin continued to retrace, discussions in the market about the bottom of this cycle have kept intensifying. Based on comprehensive analysis from multiple parties, Bitcoin may be gradually moving closer to the bottom of this cycle, but in the short term, it still needs to wait for the market to complete further deleveraging and base-building.

Grayscale’s latest research report says that since Bitcoin’s peak of about $125,000 in October 2025, it has pulled back by more than 50% and fallen below $60,000, which still represents a cyclical adjustment within a long-term bull market rather than a trend reversal. The report notes that the sell-off in this round has been mainly driven by a combination of factors, including a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve policy toward a more hawkish stance, uncertainty regarding the legislative outlook for the CLARITY Act, pressure from Strategy’s leverage, and concerns about quantum computing security. Grayscale believes that if the bill advances smoothly, corporate deleveraging pressure eases, and the Federal Reserve temporarily pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin may already be close to the bottom of this cycle; conversely, if regulatory progress is hindered, digital-asset companies continue deleveraging, and added rate-hike risks combine, there is still room for the market to probe lower further. However, compared with historical cycles, this round’s institutional capital base is more solid, and the retracement magnitude is unlikely to repeat the approximately 80% bear-market decline seen in the past. Looking ahead long term, it remains optimistic about the development prospects of public blockchains and digital assets.

Market participants’ views on the bottoming range are also gradually converging. Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), said that this round of decline has entered the third wave of pullbacks since October 2025. If the market follows historical volatility patterns, July to August may become the last—and most valuable—window for positioning in this bear market. He believes that U.S. stock market performance, changes in Strategy’s balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates are still the core variables determining the direction of the market, and investors should also be cautious about black swan events that may occur near the end of the bear market. Based on calculations of historical drawdowns, if Bitcoin retraces 60% to 66% from a $126,000 peak, the corresponding price would be approximately $51,000 to $43,000; this range is still considered a potential extreme stress zone.

Crypto analyst Murphy, meanwhile, based on an analysis of the “post-halving MVRV overlapping curve,” believes that overall volatility in this cycle has clearly contracted, and both the highs and lows are weaker than those seen in historical bull-and-bear cycles. Currently, the corresponding MVRV range is about 1.12 to 1.30, implying a reasonable operating range for Bitcoin of roughly $59,000 to $70,000. The probability of dropping below $50,000 in the short term is relatively limited, and before July 23, it is more likely that the market will remain in a range-bound or weak rebound pattern. Murphy further pointed out that the genuinely noteworthy base-building phase may begin in late July through late August, while September through October could bring more important directional choices. He believes that Bitcoin below $60,000 already has relatively high long-term allocation value, but for now, investors should remain patient and wait for the market to complete the construction of the bottom.