When Grayscale, Yi Lihua, and on-chain analysts all shout 'close to the bottom,' the market should instead be wary.

The Grayscale report and various views all point to the July-October turning point window, with the MVRV range of 1.12-1.30 corresponding to $59,000-$70k, which is logically consistent. But the problem is: this 'bottom consensus' itself is becoming the counterparty.
The on-chain structure has already split — the supply in loss hit an all-time high, but whales are accumulating ETH against the trend; ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, miner profit margins have compressed to historical lows, and STR has depegged. Not all signals point in the same direction.
The real risk is not whether the price can fall another 10%, but that the 'bottom-building' narrative causes traders to overlook the divergence in holder structure. When everyone feels the bottom is right ahead, the true bottom often requires a more thorough washout.
$eth #etf #On-chain Data #区块链 #Crypto Market