Summary of views: Bitcoin may be in a cyclical bottoming phase, focusing on the key reversal window from July to October.

BlockBeats News, June 29 — As Bitcoin continues to pull back, discussions about the bottom of this cycle are growing increasingly heated in the market. Based on comprehensive analysis from multiple perspectives, Bitcoin may be gradually approaching the cycle bottom, but in the short term it still needs to wait for the market to complete further liquidation and bottoming out.

Grayscale’s latest research report suggests that Bitcoin’s decline of more than 50% from its peak of around $125,000 in October 2025 and its drop below $60,000 are still best understood as a cyclical adjustment within a long-term bull market, not a trend reversal. The report states that the main drivers of this round of losses include, among other factors, the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations shifting toward a hawkish stance, uncertainty in the legislative outlook for the CLARITY Act, leverage pressure from Strategy, and concerns about quantum computing security. Grayscale believes that if the bill advances smoothly, corporate deleveraging pressures ease, and the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, Bitcoin may already be near the bottom of this cycle; by contrast, if regulatory progress is hindered, digital-asset companies continue to delever and rate-hike risks are layered on top, the market still has room for further downside. However, compared with historical cycles, this cycle’s institutional capital base is more solid, and the drawdown is not expected to replicate the roughly 80% bear-market declines seen in the past. Long term, Grayscale remains optimistic about the prospects for public blockchains and digital assets.

Market participants’ views on the bottom range are also becoming increasingly concentrated. Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), said that this downturn has entered the third wave of pullbacks since October 2025. If historical volatility patterns are followed, July to August could become the last—and most valuable—window for positioning in this bear market. He believes that the direction of U.S. stocks, changes in Strategy’s balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates remain the core variables determining market direction. At the same time, he also noted that investors should be wary of potential black-swan events that may occur toward the tail end of the bear market. Based on calculations of historical drawdowns, if Bitcoin falls back 60% to 66% from the $126,000 peak, the corresponding price level would be approximately $51,000 to $43,000—an area still widely regarded as a potential extreme-stress zone.

Crypto analyst Murphy, using an analysis of the “post-halving MVRV overlapping curve,” believes that the overall volatility of this cycle has clearly converged, with both the highs and the lows weaker than in historical bull-and-bear cycles. At present, the corresponding MVRV range is roughly 1.12 to 1.30, implying a reasonable operating range for Bitcoin of about $59,000 to $70,000. The probability of falling below $50,000 in the short term is relatively limited, and before July 23 it is more likely to maintain a sideways or weak rebound pattern. Murphy further pointed out that the truly noteworthy bottoming phase may begin in late July through late August, while September to October could bring more important directional selection. He believes that Bitcoin below $60,000 already has high long-term allocation value, but for now investors should remain patient and wait for the market to complete the process of building a bottom.