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This Week's Market Outlook
Two main themes this week: a slew of major employment data, and market disruption due to the US Independence Day holiday
Monday: Observe market support after pullback
No major macro data today; the key focus is on the market's self-repair momentum.
Last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both weakened, with tech sectors like AI and semiconductors collectively cooling down.
Micron's earnings report was impressive; this week we need to track the market to confirm whether the memory chip sector can trigger a sector-wide rally.
Tuesday: Employment and consumption data released; Nike reports earnings after market close
At 10:00 PM ET, JOLTS job openings and Consumer Confidence Index are released.
Before the nonfarm payrolls data, the market mainly relies on JOLTS to gauge the extent of labor market cooling, while consumer confidence reflects the strength of household consumption willingness.
Nike reports earnings after the close; key focus on global consumption trends, apparel inventory, direct-to-consumer channels, and Chinese market demand.
Although not in the tech sector, it can directly reflect the overall consumption weakness both domestically and internationally.
Wednesday: Nonfarm payroll preview data arrives, along with Fed official remarks
Evening data and events schedule:
8:15 PM ET: ADP private employment data
9:30 PM ET: Fed official Waller public speech
10:00 PM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI
The core references for the day are two indicators: ADP guides employment market expectations, ISM Manufacturing PMI assesses industry conditions and inflation pressures, while also noting any monetary policy signals from officials.
Thursday: The most important day of the week; nonfarm payrolls data released early
Due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday, the June nonfarm payrolls are rescheduled to Thursday.
At 8:30 PM ET, the complete set of data including nonfarm payroll additions, unemployment rate, wages, and initial jobless claims will be released simultaneously, directly influencing market risk sentiment.
Additionally, US stock markets will close early that day, ending trading at 1:00 PM ET, which corresponds to 1:00 AM Friday in China.
The time left for capital trading after the data release is greatly shortened, and market liquidity will contract significantly. If there is sharp volatility, one cannot operate based on normal liquidity logic.
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