Every time someone asks me, "Is this the bottom?" I say the same thing: wait for the black swan.


In 2014, Mt. Gox; in 2018, the ICO collapse; in 2022, LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX imploded one after another. Every bear market bottom has been accompanied by a blow-up, and in this cycle, one hasn't happened yet.
The drop in May 2026 was already the third wave since 1011. According to the cyclical pattern, it is likely the last wave.
Next, we need to watch two things: whether the U.S. stock market is truly correcting, and whether MicroStrategy can hold up. The Fed's stance on CPI could wipe out rate cut expectations. Before these variables are settled, talking about the bottom is just nonsense.
But there's a math problem we can do first. BTC's top was 126k, a 60% drop brings it to 51k, and a 66% drop brings it to 43k. So around 50k is likely the bottom.
Don't bet on the absolute low; bet on the lower end of the range.
If you hesitated at that 58k wick on June 25th, the market will likely give you another chance in the coming months.
Watch July and August closely.
LUNA0.98%
BTC-0.39%
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