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In August, the market's mainstream core expectation is that the Brazilian central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
The probability of a 25bp rate cut is 63%, with odds of only 1.59x; the blue curve has been at a high level overall for a long time. Although there was a significant pullback in mid-June, it quickly rebounded to high levels again near June 29, with over half of the funds betting on the start of rate cut easing in August.