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The market's main core expectation is that the Brazilian central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August
Probability of a 25bp rate cut is 63%, odds only 1.59x; the blue curve has been at high levels overall for a long time. Although there was a significant pullback in mid-June, it quickly rose again near June 29 to return to high levels, with over half of the funds betting on a rate cut easing in August.