Memory Big Three Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron face U.S. class-action lawsuit, accused of manipulating DRAM prices amid HBM transition.

The memory price surge sweeping the globe is evolving into a legal storm. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the three chip giants that control the global DRAM market, faced a class-action lawsuit in a U.S. federal court last week, accused of colluding to reduce traditional DRAM capacity under the guise of transitioning to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for artificial intelligence, causing related prices to soar approximately 700% over the past four years.

The lawsuit was filed on June 25 in a California federal court, with the plaintiffs representing consumers and businesses that purchased products containing commercial DRAM during the recent price hike cycle. The complaint cites Apple's recent broad price increases on its iPad and Mac product lines as a direct case of harm, viewing it as the immediate trigger for the lawsuit, and accuses the three companies of colluding to cut production of traditional memory like DDR3 and DDR4, artificially creating a supply shortage and price surge dubbed "RAMpocalypse."

This case is not without precedent. Samsung and SK Hynix pleaded guilty to criminal price-fixing charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice in the 2000s, paying a combined $731 million in fines, with multiple executives sentenced to prison. The complaint explicitly references this record, attempting to establish a pattern of long-term collusion among the three companies, thereby providing stronger legal grounds for the current allegations.

For investors, regardless of how the lawsuit proceeds, high memory prices are unlikely to reverse in the short term. Jefferies predicts that memory prices in the third quarter of 2026 will rise another 40% to 50% from the previous quarter, followed by a further sequential increase of 30% to 40% in the fourth quarter, and a year-over-year increase of 40% to 45% for all of 2027. A more significant slowdown is not expected until 2028—meaning downstream businesses and end consumers will face cost pressures for an extended period.

Core of the lawsuit: HBM transition alleged to be a "smokescreen" for supply reduction

The core argument of the complaint is that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, leveraging their oligopolistic position in the global DRAM market, have used the strategic shift to HBM as a pretext to sharply reduce production capacity for commercial memory like DDR3 and DDR4, artificially creating a supply contraction. According to data cited in the complaint, these coordinated actions have led to a cumulative price increase of approximately 700% for commercial DRAM over the past four years, causing widespread disruption to global consumer electronics and corporate IT procurement.

Apple's recent broad price hikes on iPads and Macs are cited by the plaintiffs as a typical example of price transmission: The supply gap created by the three manufacturers upstream has been passed down through the supply chain, ultimately landing on end consumers.

The legal arguments in this lawsuit are not凭空而来. Samsung and SK Hynix formally pleaded guilty to criminal price-fixing cases brought by the U.S. Department of Justice in the 2000s, paying a combined $731 million in fines, and multiple executives were sentenced to prison.

The complaint cites this historical record to present to the court a pattern of systematic and repeated collusion among the three companies, thereby strengthening the credibility and legal force of the current allegations. Compared to defendants facing their first accusations, this prior record provides the plaintiffs with a relatively strong reference point and also exposes the defense to higher public and legal costs.

Price outlook: High-price "new normal" may last until 2028

Alongside the litigation process, the market holds a persistently pessimistic outlook on memory price trends. Multiple companies, including Lenovo, have publicly stated that high memory prices will become the "new normal." Analysts also point out that behind such statements lies a commercial motive to guide consumers to place orders early and avoid waiting.

Jefferies' forecast is more specific: The firm expects memory prices in the third quarter of 2026 to surge 40% to 50% from the previous quarter, followed by a sequential increase of 30% to 40% in the fourth quarter; entering 2027, full-year prices are expected to rise another 40% to 45% year-on-year, with a substantive slowdown not occurring until 2028. For downstream companies and end consumers, the sustained rise in memory costs will continue to be passed on to final product pricing over a long period, putting continuous pressure on the cost structures of consumer electronics, servers, and corporate IT procurement.

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