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Grayscale: There Are Two Evolutionary Paths for the Bitcoin Bear Market, Long-Term Outlook for Crypto Assets Remains Positive

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Mars Financial News, June 29 – According to the latest research report released by Grayscale, Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its peak of approximately $125k in October 2025, falling below $60k. The report believes that this decline remains a cyclical correction within Bitcoin's long-term upward trend, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend. Grayscale pointed out that the recent pressure on Bitcoin is mainly due to multiple factors, including a shift in expectations toward a hawkish Fed policy, uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, Strategy's leveraged balance sheet pressures, and investor concerns about potential security risks from quantum computing. Among these, as U.S. President Trump nominated the hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, the market has shifted from previously expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes within the year, weakening Bitcoin's investment logic as an inflation hedge asset. There are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's future: Under the baseline scenario, where the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Fed postpones rate hikes, Bitcoin may be near the bottom of this cycle; under the pessimistic scenario, where the bill fails to pass within the year, digital asset financial companies continue deleveraging, and persistent inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, Bitcoin's price could still decline further. However, given that this bull market's gains are relatively modest and institutional demand is more stable, the magnitude of this retracement is expected not to repeat the historical peak decline of about 80%, and Grayscale stated that it remains optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.
BTC-0.08%
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