Grayscale: There are two evolution paths for the Bitcoin bear market, still bullish on crypto assets in the long term.

BlockBeats news, June 29, according to the latest research report released by Grayscale, Bitcoin has retraced more than 50% from its high of approximately $125k in October 2025, falling below $60k. The report believes that this decline remains a cyclical correction within Bitcoin's long-term uptrend, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.

Grayscale pointed out that the recent pressure on Bitcoin is primarily driven by multiple factors, including a shift in market expectations towards a hawkish Federal Reserve policy, uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, balance sheet pressure from Strategy's leveraged position, and investor concerns about potential security risks from quantum computing. Among these, as U.S. President Trump nominated the hawkish Kevin Warsh to serve as Fed Chair, the market has shifted from expecting rate cuts to anticipating rate hikes within the year, weakening Bitcoin's investment thesis as an asset that hedges against currency debasement.

There are two main scenarios for Bitcoin's future outlook: In the baseline scenario, if the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Fed holds off on rate hikes, Bitcoin may be nearing the bottom of this cycle. In the pessimistic scenario, if the Act fails to pass this year, digital asset financial companies continue to deleverage, and persistent inflation forces the Fed to raise rates, Bitcoin prices could still decline further.

However, since this bull market's gains are relatively modest and institutional demand is more solid, the magnitude of this retracement is not expected to repeat the historical peak drawdown of approximately 80% seen in past cycles. Grayscale also stated that it continues to be bullish on the long-term growth prospects of public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.