Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%.

BlockBeats News, June 29 — According to the latest report from Galaxy Research, as the Senate legislative calendar continues to be compressed, the probability of the U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) completing legislation by 2026 has been lowered from 60% three weeks ago to 50%. The report notes that although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee review in May and has been placed on the Senate legislative calendar, it has not yet formed a unified text between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and no floor vote has been scheduled.

Galaxy Research stated that if the bill hopes to complete deliberation before the August congressional recess, the Senate Majority Leader would need to schedule a floor vote by early July at the latest. Otherwise, the legislative process is likely to be delayed until September and will be affected by midterm election political factors. Meanwhile, the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act and other priority agendas are also continuously occupying Senate voting time.

In addition, some key parts of the bill remain contentious, including conflict-of-interest provisions and developer protection clauses in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which still require more cross-party support. If a unified bill text can be released in the coming weeks, major disputes resolved, and a July floor vote formally scheduled, the probability of passage could be revised back up to above 60%. However, if there is no substantive progress by mid-July, the probability of passage may further decline.