Currently, spot gold is in a medium-term weak adjustment pattern characterized by four consecutive weekly bearish candles. Although the market saw a strong rebound on June 27 and returned above $4,000, it is essentially an oversold technical correction after the previous sharp decline, rather than a fundamental reversal. In the medium term, expectations of high Fed interest rates, a strong dollar, and continued ETF outflows form solid bearish pressure, limiting the rebound's upside; however, in the long term, central banks' ongoing gold purchases and geopolitical safe-haven demand build a bottom, closing the space for deep declines. This week, gold is expected to undergo wide and violent fluctuations around the key watershed of $4,000, with bulls and bears fiercely battling before and after the release of major data.

On the daily chart, gold prices remain in a clear downward channel, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages arranged in a bearish alignment and continuing to diverge downward, creating layered resistance. Prices are always below all moving averages, keeping the medium-term bearish structure intact. Although yesterday closed with a small bullish candlestick, it was a technical rebound repair following the sharp decline and failed to break the lower rail of the previous channel, indicating insufficient rebound momentum. The MACD indicator shows signs of a golden cross at low levels, but the green bars have shortened only slightly, suggesting weak bullish repair momentum. The RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold zone to the neutral range, showing that short-term bearish momentum has somewhat exhausted, but it has not yet entered the strong zone. Overall, the daily bearish trend remains unchanged; the current rebound is merely a correction after overselling, not a trend reversal.
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have formed a temporary deep V-shaped reversal. After consecutive dips, prices stabilized around 4,047.80, and the short-term moving averages have started to turn upward, providing short-term support. The middle rail of the Bollinger Bands forms the first intraday resistance in the 4,060-4,070 range, while the upper rail near 4,090-4,100 constitutes strong pressure. The channel overall remains downward-biased, limiting the rebound space. On the 1-hour timeframe, gold prices have broken through the upper rail of the short-term downward channel, temporarily alleviating panic selling, and have entered a volatile rebound pattern. However, the 4,060-4,065 level is the key watershed for today's battle between bulls and bears; whether prices can hold steady will determine if the rebound can continue. If it continues to face pressure here, the short-term probability is a retracement to test support again; if it breaks out with volume, it could further test the 4,090-4,100 resistance zone.