$LAB At a price of 13.79, it dropped 19% in 24 hours, crashing all the way from 17.96. I directly compare the data from the three historical halving cycles: after the November 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from $12 to $1000 in 13 months, with a maximum pullback of 45%; after the July 2016 halving, it went from $650 to $19,800 in 18 months, with a maximum pullback of only 30%; after the May 2020 halving, it went from $9,000 to $69,000 in 19 months, and remember those 40% crashes in between?

Back to this piece of crap $LAB. The 24-hour trading volume is $252 million, which is decent liquidity for spot trading, but this is not a traffic coin—it’s a typical product of chip gambling. The current price has just fallen to the neckline support level of the previous platform around 13.7. If this level holds, the rebound target looks at the lower edge of the 15.5 to 17.6 range. If it breaks below 13.5, the only volume accumulation below is at 12.2.
My operation is: at this price level, I’ll take at most 0.5x position to gamble on a bounce, with stop-loss set at 13.3—don’t hold on if it drops more than 3%. Take-profit is in two steps: first target 16.2, sell half; second target see if it can touch 17.6. If Bitcoin breaks $72k again tonight, all bounce plans are off.
The narrative of this halving cycle is completely different from before: the liquidity-driven market has turned into structural gambling. Retail funds in exchanges have all turned into altcoin chips, but institutional money is bottom-fishing. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes; this time the rhythm may be faster and shorter. Don’t blindly believe, and don’t go all-in on a gamble.
I’m the old hand who has been wiped out twice, only calling out levels in the group, not faith. For this kind of data analysis, I only trust odds and stop-losses. I’ve given you the levels; weigh them yourself.