Author | Alex Thorn

Translation | Jiahuan, ChainCatcher

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Over Bitcoin's 17-year history, prices have always moved in long-term cycles. Roughly every four years, it climbs to euphoric highs, undergoes painful drawdowns to a bottom, and then begins to recover.

This rhythm has historically been anchored by the quadrennial halving, which directly cuts the regular new supply in half. Although the influence of successive halvings is waning and the market is filled with various "supercycle" predictions, empirical data again shows that the pattern of the four-year cycle remains intact.

This report aims to explore these fluctuations and a pattern emerging in Bitcoin's modern history: each fluctuation is milder than the last.

The peak in October 2025 was the calmest top in Bitcoin's history, and the subsequent decline has been unusually mild. Since the high was so restrained, should we expect the final cycle bottom to be unusually shallow? If so, where would that bottom approximately fall?

This report assumes the bottom of the current retracement has not yet arrived and provides data to support this hypothesis. The data also suggests that the calmer top in October 2025 could lead to a higher cycle bottom.

Historical analogies suggest the base-case bottom for the current retracement is between $40k and $46k, occurring roughly between now and Q4 2026. (The base case is for illustrative purposes only. Actual results may differ materially.)

Crucially, this report relies entirely on market data, on-chain data, and time cycle analysis. Our predicted cycle bottom range does not utilize or depend on an assessment of the likelihood, timing, or impact of external events (such as regulatory, market, or geopolitical developments).

Is Bitcoin's "Four-Year Cycle" Still Valid?

Each Bitcoin cycle goes from a previous low, through the halving, to a top, and back down to the next low. The following includes four cycles, including the current one:

The bottom of the current cycle has not yet formed. Based on the report date of June 9, 2026, its retracement depth and elapsed time are "to date" data.

Note the two patterns underlying this report: First, the decline from peak to trough is shrinking in each cycle (from 85% to 84% to 77%). Second, historically, a bottom appears about 12 to 13 months after each top forms. The current cycle is only eight months past its most recent top.

When indexed, the October 2025 top appears exceptionally restrained compared to tops of previous cycles. Consequently, the average price paid for market holdings (i.e., realized price, or "cost basis") is unusually close to the all-time high, reaching 43.7% of the previous ATH.

In contrast, this ratio was typically one-third or lower in past cycles.

This is a crucial data point: if a sell-off of the same magnitude that ended past bear markets occurs, this time it would stabilize at a much higher dollar price. Comparing cycle timing, amplitude, and on-chain metrics, the current retracement may bottom in the following range:

The price levels above and the analysis in this report both point to our view: the bottom of this cycle has not yet been found. Very few of the historical cycle bottom indicators have been triggered; from a time perspective, the current decline is still short compared to historical retracements; and, once genuine panic sets in, the cost basis itself will decline.

Our core argument is: empirically, the four-year cycle is still valid, but the amplitude of the cycle has contracted. A calmer top raises the floor but does not eliminate it.

How to Accurately Identify Cycle Tops and Bottoms with Data?

It is nearly impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to accurately capture a top or bottom while it is forming; but in hindsight, it is always obvious. Therefore, our approach is to list the conditions that have appeared at past tops and bottoms and see how many are currently manifesting simultaneously.

To build a system for evaluating past tops and bottoms, we examined five types of evidence: Valuation (relative to holders' purchase cost, is the current price high or low?), Profit-taking (are holders selling into strength or capitulating into weakness?), Miners (are the participants producing Bitcoin flush with cash or under pressure?), Trend (how far is the price deviating from its long-term average?), and Sentiment (greed or fear?).

Applying this five-dimensional perspective to both ends of the current cycle paints a clear picture: Bitcoin's volatility is narrowing. The euphoria of each top is less than the previous one, and the subsequent crash is shallower.

If this amplitude "contraction" is real and holds at both ends, it can provide valuable information about the expected cycle low in the current retracement. We can estimate a range for where Bitcoin might bottom in the current retracement.

This analysis requires us to first define indicators and establish benchmarks to identify cycle tops and bottoms. We use the same scoring method for both ends: compare with the levels reached at every past top and every past bottom.

Reviewing Cycle Tops

The top is real, but it is also the calmest in history. At the October high, only two of the 11 classic warning signals reached the mild level of previous cycle tops, and only barely.

The clearest valuation indicator, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio (measuring how high the price is relative to the average price paid by holders), peaked at 2.29, while the MVRV for the previous three tops ranged from 2.93 to 5.91.

The entire "greed" indicator group recorded the lowest cycle top readings ever, and the Pi Cycle Top indicator (a timing signal that predicted the previous three tops within a few days) did not trigger at all, a first in Bitcoin's history.

However, in terms of timing, it was textbook: the top occurred 1,062 days after the previous low, exactly coinciding with the timing of the 2017 and 2021 peaks.

The twist is that the true euphoria appeared about 18 months earlier, around the time the US launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. After that, although enthusiasm waned, prices continued to climb. In hindsight, this looks more like institutional buying than the retail euphoric buying that triggers top blow-offs.

The following is the complete top indicator table for the current cycle (anchored on the October 2025 all-time high).

Of the 11 magnitude signals: two were confirmed, two were only partially confirmed (reaching at least 85% of the threshold), and seven did not trigger. The two confirmed (RSI and SOPR) only barely crossed the weakest threshold set in 2021, and their peaks occurred in 2023 and 2024 respectively, not at the October 2025 price high.

Crucially, despite the cycle clock arriving on time, the Pi Cycle Top signal did not trigger (these two indicators are handled separately because time is a calendar fact, not a measure of top euphoria).

"Past Top Markers" are the ranges for the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops; the threshold is the mildest of the three (the 2021 peak), which is the easiest top threshold to cross. "Cycle Peak" is the most extreme reading of each indicator in the current cycle and its month of occurrence. Reserve Risk and Pi Cycle Ratio use our internal measurement scales.

Extrapolating Cycle Bottoms

During this retracement, only 4 of the 13 bottoming signals have been triggered, three of which are weaker indicators: Fear sentiment, trend indicators reaching the bottom zone, and the first breach of the 200-week moving average.

The fourth signal reversed in early June and is also the first warning from the miner side: a recovery cross in Hash Ribbons. That is, the 30-day average hashrate, after a period of capitulation, climbed back above the 60-day average hashrate, a signal that historically often precedes a bottom.

The strongest signals marking every true bottom (price breaking below the cost basis, holders overall in loss, continuous selling at a loss, deep panic washout) have not yet appeared. The current -51% decline is still much milder than the -77% to -85% lows that ended previous cycles, and also shallower than the -53% decline in mid-2021.

But the rhythm has changed. Measured at the same point in the cycle (about eight months after the peak, i.e., 242 days), the recent decline has pushed the current retracement slightly below the level of the 2013-2015 cycle at the same stage (which was undergoing a relief rally, with a decline of -48%).

Therefore, it is no longer the shallowest retracement path on the chart (it was the shallowest for most of this retracement). The 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles were much deeper at this stage (both near -68%). By the cycle clock, the window for the bear market low is unlikely to open until around late 2026.

Each curve tracks the decline of a cycle from its peak, aligned at day 0. By around day 242 (dashed line), the current cycle (orange, -51%) has slightly dipped below the level of the 2013-2015 cycle (-48%), making it no longer the shallowest retracement cycle (it was for most of the time). The other two past cycles were near -68% at this stage. All current cycles are far above the current price (green band is the bottoming zone of past bear markets).

The following is the complete bottom indicator scorecard for the current retracement, using indicators that have previously signaled cycle bottoms.

Of the 13 target indicators, 4 have been triggered, 2 are approaching, and 7 have not yet been triggered.

To illustrate the indicative power of these bottom indicators, the following table shows when they were triggered at previous cycle bottoms, compared to today.

Aligning these 13 same signals with the past three cycles, the picture is clear: at every past bear market low, all 13 indicators eventually entered the bottoming zone. The only difference is timing, some triggered early, some lagged.

Today, only 4 have been triggered, and the only miner-side indicator (Hash Ribbons) was triggered only recently. (A notable difference is that this time the Hash Ribbons reversal seems to precede the bottom, rather than lagging behind it as in the past. This may be due to externalities from Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI, a phenomenon not seen in past cycles.)

The numbers in the past cycle cells indicate the number of days each indicator's extreme value closest to the bottom led (-) or lagged (+) the price low of that cycle, within a 180-day window. Hash Ribbons refers to the recovery cross; Cycle Clock refers to the 12th month after the top.

Each indicator was triggered at the past three bottoms. The signaling value lies in whether they triggered early or late. The low of this cycle does not appear to have arrived yet, so the current column shows only whether each checkbox has been ticked since the October 2025 price high.

Tops Get Lower, Bottoms Get Higher

Before drawing any conclusions, let's present a fact on which the rest of the report is based: Bitcoin's volatility has narrowed on both ends.

The heat of the top cools each cycle (MVRV: 5.91, 4.72, 2.93, 2.29), and the subsequent bottom rises each cycle, with MVRV increasing from 0.56 in 2015, to 0.69 in 2018, to 0.75 in 2022.

In other words, the distance between the most overvalued and most undervalued points shrinks each cycle. The crashes also tell the same story: declines of -85%, -84%, -77%, and currently only -51%.

The ratio of price to cost basis (MVRV) for each top (red) and subsequent bottom (blue) is converging towards "fair value" (1.0) from both directions. The data suggests the current cycle likely hasn't bottomed yet (hollow diamond is the deepest reading so far). This is a description of the cycle pattern, not a guarantee of where this cycle will bottom.

Tops cooling and bottoms rising is a description of the three completed cycles, not a law of nature. It does not in itself prove that the next low will be shallow.

But it allows us to ask a precise question and get a precise answer: if a given bottom behaves like past bottoms, to what extent is the dollar decline determined by the euphoria of the top?

Raised Price Floor

MVRV is simply today's price divided by the on-chain cost basis. Conversely, the cost basis is the all-time high divided by the MVRV at the top. So a lower top MVRV means the cost basis is closer to the peak.

Since the October top was the calmest in history (MVRV 2.29), the cost basis ended up at 43.7% of the all-time high (compared to 34.2%, 21.2%, and 16.9% at the 2021, 2017, and 2013 tops, respectively). A calm top does not compress the floor; all else being equal, it brings the cost basis closer to the peak, thereby raising the floor.

The cost basis as a percentage of each cycle's all-time high increases each cycle, reaching 44% in 2025, precisely because each top is milder. The annotation on each bar shows the dollar decline that a typical traditional bottom would correspond to for that cycle.

Now, fixing the bottom's performance (assuming each cycle bottoms at the same MVRV), we can see that the dollar decline shrinks each cycle, purely because the cost basis starts higher. The following table, without any prediction, illustrates this:

Each cell shows: if the cycle bottoms at the MVRV in that column, the decline calculated based on the cycle's specific cost basis to peak ratio.

The bottom performance is identical within the same row; only the calmness of the top changes. A typical traditional bottom (MVRV 0.70) meant an -88% decline in 2013, but only -69% in this cycle. This is purely isolating the effect of the top; it's arithmetic, not an assertion that a calm top necessarily leads to a higher bottom.

Where is the Bottom This Time?

The bottom is not located by a single percentage, but relative to two key anchors: the cost basis and the 200-week moving average (200w MA). The latter has served as long-term price support throughout Bitcoin's entire life.

Measured against these two anchors, the past three bear market lows all fell significantly below both: on average about -33% below the cost basis (deepest -44% in 2015), and about -14% below the four-year moving average.

Two points are worth noting.

First, the gap below the cost basis is shrinking each cycle (-44%, -31%, -25%), mirroring the contraction on the top side.

Second, today's price hasn't even touched that zone. Despite a 51% decline, Bitcoin's price is still 14% above the cost basis (it has never broken below the cost basis this cycle) and only 1.5% below the four-year moving average. By the yardstick that located past bottoms, this bottom hasn't arrived yet.

The distance of each past bear market low below the cost basis (blue) and the four-year moving average (purple). Past lows were far below both; today's price is still above the cost basis and only slightly below the 200-week MA, while the gap below the cost basis is shrinking each cycle.

The anchors and the arithmetic lead to the same conclusion. Converting past gaps to today's anchors points to the same zone: -25% to -44% below the cost basis, roughly equating to $30k to $40k; the gap from the four-year moving average spans roughly $41k to $62k.

This suggests the true bottom is likely below the current price but far above the old "75% to 85% decline" levels.

Converting the arithmetic into prices, based on the current cost basis of $53k, yields not a single number but a set of scenarios; we look at the middle one first.

Our base case assumes the bottom merely continues the trend of converging towards fair value each cycle (MVRV 0.75 to 0.86), landing roughly between $40k and $46k. If a more severe, 2018 or 2022-like deep washout occurs (MVRV 0.56 to 0.70), the price would fall between $30k and $37k.

For a shallower outcome, where stable buying absorbs the decline near the cost basis (MVRV 0.95 to 1.01), the price would be around $51k to $54k; merely touching the rising four-year moving average ($62k) would represent a decline of only about -51%. (For illustrative purposes only. Actual results may differ materially.)

Several scenarios plotted by price. The cost basis and the rising four-year moving average (historically, bottoms follow these lines) are far above the old "75% to 85% decline" zone (gray, deprecated).

The colored bands translate past bottom patterns into today's dollar prices. These prices assume a bottom has formed and are not predictions that the bottom is imminent. For illustrative purposes only. Actual results may differ materially.

The real takeaway is how this overturns the old rule of thumb. A -77% to -85% decline (the accurate yardstick for past cycles) would place this bottom at $19k to $29k.

But this rule effectively counts the effect of the calm top twice: the extreme 75% to 85% declines of the past were based on extremely euphoric peaks; this peak is mild and close to the cost basis. Forcibly applying the deep decline percentage from extreme euphoria to this mild peak will naturally distort the bottom prediction.

Within this entire picture, the cost basis is like the tide underneath, and it also most clearly shows that the "floor" moves.

Over the past year, as high-price buyers of this cycle have raised the average cost, the cost basis rose from about $47k to a peak near $56k in late 2025 (a 20% increase). This rise is the deepest reason why the current bottom is far above the old rule.

However, as some coins from 2024-2025 changed hands at a loss during the decline, the realized price subsequently fell by about 5%, to around $53k.

Entering late 2026, the realized price (i.e., cost basis) becomes a key variable determining the bottom: a calm, orderly decline could stabilize it, stabilizing the base case around $45k; a true panic would break it further, dragging the overall prediction down.

Why Does the Bottom Also Move?

The cost basis is reflexive. It looks like a floor, but it is built from the price at which coins last traded. In a real sell-off, coins changing hands at a loss pull this average down, so this "floor" fails to support the price and instead follows it down.

This is the biggest limitation of the argument for a higher floor. The buffer is thin: today's price is only about 14% above the cost basis (MVRV 1.14), and it has never broken below it this cycle.

If a sell-off pulls the cost basis down by 10%, 20%, or 30%, a typical bottom pattern could fall from about $40k to approximately $36k, $32k, or $28k, back into the normal historical range.

Keeping the bottom pattern constant and letting the cost basis decline during the sell-off. The implied bottom price would slide from about $40k back to near $28k, re-entering the normal historical range (amber). A calm top raises the floor, but a true panic would eat away part of that increase.

The stable, price-insensitive buying from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, which didn't exist in past cycles, tends to support a higher floor. But it can amplify declines as easily as it buffers them.

The nature of these funds dictates that digital asset treasury companies (DATs) and corporate treasuries often buy into strength, not catch falling knives; and ETF funds have seen net outflows in 2026. In a true deep sell-off, fund redemptions could force selling rather than absorbing sell orders.

The 2022 cycle saw the largest forced liquidation washout in crypto history, yet it only declined -77%. So "lower leverage this time" may not hold. (These are supporting arguments, not the core pillars of the thesis.)

A higher floor, and the risk of it being eroded in a panic, are two sides of the same mechanism: the cost basis starts higher this cycle, but it will also decline if genuine market capitulation occurs. This is precisely why we value a range over a single number.

What the Data Indicates for the Retracement

Our analysis conclusions clearly point to how deep and how long the retracement will be.

A milder top has pushed the cost basis to 43.7% of the all-time high, so for any given bottom pattern, the dollar decline is mechanically milder than in any past cycle.

We believe the rule of thumb "Bitcoin historically declines 75% to 85%, so this cycle will bottom at $19k to $29k" as a literal price floor is outdated.

Even if a similar deep washout to the past occurs, it now corresponds to a much higher number. Therefore, even our more severe washout scenario is above that zone, and our base case falls in the mid-$40ks.

Compared to past cycle indicators and timing data, the bottom is likely still ahead. Only 4 of the 13 bottom indicators have lit up, and the current retracement is only about 8 months old, while historical patterns show bottoms forming 12 to 13 months later (and the cost basis itself will still decline).

There are several true deep washout signals: price breaking below the cost basis, holders overall in loss, continuous selling at a loss, effective breach of the four-year moving average, and a bear-market-level deep decline. If these signals start to reverse at levels far above the old range, it would confirm that the amplitude contraction on both ends of the cycle is real.

Conversely, if a full-blown capitulation sell-off arrives as expected, then the calm top merely delayed the pain without mitigating it. In either case, the arithmetic of the cost basis shows that the starting line for making this judgment is far above the levels assumed by the old four-year cycle rule.

This is a descriptive study about how a calm cycle top shapes the arithmetic of the cycle bottom, not necessarily a prediction of price direction or price targets. The price levels we set are analogies using historical data for the current retracement relative to today's cost basis (which itself will change).

Appendix A: Chart Library

We include a large number of supporting charts organized by theme. The first set builds the cycle framework; the second set reviews the full bottom checklist. In each indicator chart, the shaded band is the range reached by that indicator at the 2015, 2018, and 2022 lows, and the orange marker is the latest reading.

Cycle Diagrams

Price and its cycle tops. Bitcoin's full price history on a logarithmic scale, marking the three past cycle tops (red) and the October 2025 high (orange).

Price and its cycle bottoms. The same history, marking reference lows: the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2018, and 2022 (red), and the COVID crash and mid-2021 retracement (gray).

Cycle Clock. How many days after the previous low (circle) and halving (square) each top arrived. The October 2025 top landed precisely within the historical window.

Euphoria Came Early. The cycle's valuation peak occurred in early 2024, around the launch of spot ETFs; on-chain enthusiasm then faded, yet prices rose another ~70% until topping in October 2025.

The Signal That Never Triggered. The Pi Cycle Top accurately predicted the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks within days (asterisks). In this cycle, the trigger condition was never met (a first for any cycle top).

Bottom Indicator Analysis

MVRV. Ratio of price to average cost basis of holders. Past bottoms pushed it far below 1.0; the current cycle's low so far stopped at 1.14.

NUPL. Proportion of market cap in unrealized profit. Past bottoms pushed it below zero (overall loss); it is still positive today.

MVRV Z-Score. Standardized version of MVRV. Past bottoms recorded deep negative values; this cycle it is still positive.

Mayer Multiple. Price divided by 200-day moving average. It has probed the bottom zone, making it the most bottom-like of all trend signals.

Price vs. Four-Year Moving Average. The 200-week MA is Bitcoin's most persistent support. Past bottoms touched or broke below it; the price has now fallen below it for the first time this cycle.

SOPR. Average profit/loss of coins moved that day. Past bottoms kept it below 1.0 (capitulation) for months; this cycle it has only briefly brushed below.

Net Realized Profit/Loss. Daily amount of profit (+) or loss (-) locked in, scaled by market size. The surge in extreme loss-taking that marks bottoms has not yet appeared.

Puell Multiple. Miner income pressure indicator. Past miner capitulation bottoms read 0.30 to 0.41; this cycle's low (approx. 0.44) is close but not touched.

Hash Ribbons. Hashrate momentum. Below 1.0 means miners are capitulating; it has persistently breached that threshold in 2026.

Fear & Greed Index. Our proprietary 0-100 sentiment indicator. The fear level during this decline is deeper than the average of past bottoms. This is the only indicator that has definitively triggered.

Appendix B: Glossary

Bitcoin Cycle. Bitcoin's roughly four-year rhythm, including multi-year climbs to new all-time highs, sharp declines to lows, and long recoveries. Each cycle is typically centered around a halving.

Halving. Approximately every four years, the rate at which new bitcoins are created is cut in half. This is a fixed feature of the protocol and has historically served as an anchor for each cycle.

All-Time High (ATH). The highest daily closing price in Bitcoin's history. The ATH for this cycle is $124,824 on October 6, 2025.

Retracement. The percentage decline in price from a peak. A -50% retracement means the price has fallen by half from its all-time high.

Cost Basis (aka Realized Price). An estimate of the average price paid for the bitcoins held by the market. Technically, it is the sum of the price of each bitcoin when it was last transferred on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins. It is the single most critical anchor in this report, and we also refer to it as the network's cost basis.

Market Cap. The total dollar value of all bitcoins at the current price (price × number of bitcoins in circulation).

Realized Cap. The total value of all bitcoins, valued at the price when each coin last moved, rather than the current price. Realized Price is Realized Cap divided by the number of bitcoins.

MVRV Ratio. Market Cap divided by Realized Cap, also equal to today's price divided by the network's cost basis. Above 1.0, the average bitcoin is in profit; below 1.0, the average bitcoin is in loss. It is a core thread throughout this report.

MVRV Z-Score. A standardized version of the difference between Market Cap and Realized Cap, making extreme highs and lows comparable across Bitcoin's vastly different price eras.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). The proportion of unrealized profit relative to total market cap. High positive values signal greed near tops; below zero (overall book loss) often accompanies despair selling near bottoms.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). The average profit/loss of coins moved that day. Above 1.0, coins are being sold at a profit; pressed below 1.0, holders are selling at a loss (a bottoming signal).

Mayer Multiple. Price divided by the 200-day moving average. A simple indicator measuring how high or low the price is relative to its medium-term trend.

200-day / 200-week Moving Average. The average closing price over the past 200 days (medium-term trend) or 200 weeks (about four years, Bitcoin's most persistent long-term support line).

Puell Multiple. The dollar value of newly mined bitcoins divided by its one-year average, used to measure miner income pressure (low) or boom (high). Named after David Puell, an analyst at ARK Invest.

Reserve Risk. Measures the confidence of long-term holders relative to price. It is presented as a ratio and is used only in a relative sense in this report.

Pi Cycle Top. A timing indicator that triggers when the 111-day moving average crosses above twice the 350-day moving average. It accurately predicted the 2013, 2017, and 2021 tops within days; it has never triggered this cycle.

Hash Ribbons. Compares the 30-day and 60-day average hashrate. When the short-term average falls below the long-term average, the most expensive miners start shutting down (capitulation); the recovery cross has historically always preceded the bottom.

Fear & Greed Index. A 0-100 sentiment indicator constructed from on-chain, derivatives, and capital flow data. Low readings indicate extreme fear (near bottoms), high readings indicate extreme greed (near tops).

RSI (Relative Strength Index). A momentum oscillator ranging from 0 to 100; high readings indicate overbought markets, typically appearing near tops.

Cycle Clock. The number of days elapsed from the cycle's starting low, or from the halving, to the top or bottom. Bitcoin's past three tops arrived about 1060 days after the previous low; bottoms appear about 12 to 13 months after the top.

Reflexivity. A concept popularized by George Soros in his 1987 book The Alchemy of Finance, referring to the idea that the yardstick used for measurement is itself influenced by price movements. Here, the cost basis looks like a floor, but in a real sell-off, coins changing hands at a loss cause it to fall. The floor is a moving target, not a fixed line.