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Core logic: In the short term, there is a gentle upward trend with rising lows and broken highs. The probability of a direct surge is low. Prioritize waiting for a pullback before positioning for a rebound. If the European session breaks above the 4100 resistance, follow the trend.
I. Key Support Levels
1. First support: 4040 (previous resistance turned into support; if retested and stabilizes, can open a small long position)
2. Second support: 4020 (secondary level uptrend line support, safe zone to add long positions)
3. Limit support: 4000 (key support of uptrend line; if lost, trend weakens)
4. Stop-loss support: 3980 (long position stop-loss level; if broken, need to change strategy promptly, pay attention to previous low of 3960)
II. Key Resistance Levels
1. First resistance: 4100 (short-term key resistance; if European session breaks above and retests, can follow the trend to go long)
2. Second resistance: 4150 (previous rebound high, first take-profit level, can reduce half position)
3. Limit resistance: 4180 (strong resistance level, second take-profit level, can close all positions)
III. Trading Plan
1. Long position strategy:
- If the price pulls back to the 4040-4050 range and stabilizes, can open a small long position, stop loss 3980, target 4100-4150.
- If the price pulls back to the 4020-4030 range and stabilizes, can add to long positions, stop loss 3980, target 4150-4180.
- If the European session price breaks above 4100 and retests, can follow the trend to go long, stop loss 4080, target 4150-4180.
2. Short position strategy:
- If the price rebounds to the 4150-4180 range and encounters resistance, can open a small short position, stop loss 4200, target 4100-4050.
- If the price breaks below 3980 and retests, can follow the trend to go short, stop loss 4000, target 3960-3930.
IV. Risk Warning
- If the 3980 support level is lost, need to stop loss in time and adjust strategy, pay attention to the 3960 support level.
- If the 4100 resistance level is broken, need to stop loss in time and adjust strategy, pay attention to the 4150 resistance level.
- Recently, need to pay attention to Fed policy moves, geopolitical situation, and USD trend, to avoid sharp fluctuations due to unexpected news. $XAUUSD