## Gold Morning Brief | 2026.06.29 Monday 🪨

### 📊 Core Data
| Asset | Price | Change |
|------|------|------|
| Spot Gold XAU | $4,073/oz | +1.36% 🟢 |
| COMEX Gold Futures | $4,103/oz | +1.37% 🟢 |
| AU9999 | ¥887/gram | +1.46% 🟢 |
| Branded Gold Shops | ¥1,235-1,240/gram | Flat |
| Recycling Price | ¥880-888/gram | — |

**ATH Pullback:** March high $5,321 → Current $4,073, pullback **-23.5%**
**Weekly:** Four consecutive bearish sessions; the previous week’s cumulative decline was 1.79%, and on Friday it stopped falling and rebounded

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### 🔥 Big Things Last Night
1. **$4,000 Survival Battle Held** — On Friday it briefly dipped to $3,982, then rebounded and closed at $4,081
2. **Shorts Take Profits** — US Treasury yields retreated, and shorts covered in a concentrated manner
3. **ETF Outflows Continue** — Net outflows for 5 straight weeks; the biggest weekly outflow reached $4.27 billion
4. **Central Banks Keep Buying** — China’s central bank has bought for 19 consecutive months; in May, +320,000 ounces

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Resistance and Support
| Level | Support | Resistance |
|------|------|------|
| Short-term | $4,030 / $3,980 | $4,096 / $4,140 |
| Medium-term | **$4,000 (lifeline)** | $4,200 / $4,400 |
| Domestic | ¥870 / ¥850 | ¥900 / ¥920 |

**$4,000 is the watershed:**
- Hold → rebound to $4,200
- Break below → probe down to $3,500

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### 💡 Strategy
- **Short-term:** Oversold rebound setup; the $4,050-4,100 zone faces heavy pressure—be cautious about chasing longs
- **Medium-term:** Weekly four consecutive bearish sessions + expectations of Fed rate hikes; mainly look to short on rebounds
- **Physical demand:** Branded gold shops at ¥1,235-1,240/gram are nearly ¥500/gram cheaper than the early-year high—buy in batches if you want to
- **Investment gold bars:** ¥895-912/gram; don’t chase price spikes—take a light position around ¥870

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### ⏰ Key Turning Points This Week
- **Wednesday:** US Core PCE + ADP “small non-farm” (ADP employment report)
- **Friday:** US non-farm employment data (determines the Fed rate-hike path)
- **End of month:** Institutions rebalance their portfolios as they roll over positions; volatility increases

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**Institutional Viewpoints:**
- Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end target to $4,900 (from $5,400)
- Deutsche Bank: With the benchmark rate unchanged scenario, Q4 gold price ~ $4,300
- If there are 3-4 rate hikes, it could fall to $3,800

> Near-term headwinds (rate-hike expectations + strong US dollar + ETF outflows) vs long-term support (central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization). $4,000 is the key battleground between bulls and bears—this week’s data will set the direction.