Natural Rubber Network: One-sided breakouts repeatedly get blocked; rubber falls in sync with the broad commodities market as it retreats

On June 22nd, rubber strengthened during the night session, with the main contract for No. 20 rubber surging in its range, closing at 15,655 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan for the day. The Shanghai rubber 2609 contract also edged up slightly, showing independent resilience against the backdrop of a weakening chemical and energy sector. Overnight, commodities were broadly divergent, with crude oil, LPG, and methanol all falling, the black metal sector (coke, iron ore) weakening, and precious metals (gold, silver) significantly retreating. Only soft commodities and a few non-ferrous metals saw slight gains. Rubber, supported by its industrial chain fundamentals, bucked the trend.

On June 23rd, the domestic futures market continued its divergent pattern during the day session. Most of the chemical and energy sector opened lower and remained under pressure, with asphalt and propylene falling over 2%. No. 20 rubber and natural rubber maintained a relatively strong oscillation, leading the chemical and energy sector in early session gains. Capital flowed slightly into soft commodities as a safe haven, industrial hedging shorts reduced positions, while longs added slightly, easing the long-short tug-of-war.

Supply and demand support the rubber price bottom. The Thai production area is gradually entering its seasonal peak period, but the price of rubber latex remains high at 87 baht/kg. Processing plants are scrambling for raw materials, pushing up costs and limiting downside space. Domestic tire production continues to weaken, with operating rates for semi-steel and full-steel tires declining month-on-month. End-product inventories are slightly accumulating, while demand-side lacks strong impetus, limiting upside potential. The bonded warehouse inventory in Qingdao continues its slow destocking pace, with exchange warehouse warrants fluctuating slightly. Low inventory provides a floor for the market.

On the macro level, the U.S. dollar has strengthened slightly, and the expectation of Fed rate hikes is suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. Rubber is unlikely to experience a unilateral sharp rally. In the short term, rubber prices will maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern. Key resistance levels to watch are Shanghai rubber at 17,900 and No. 20 rubber at 15,700, while cost support remains solid. Trading strategy should adopt a range-bound approach of selling high and buying low, while continuously tracking raw material shipments from the Thai production area and changes in domestic rubber tire operating rates. (Natural Rubber Network)