[Red envelope] June 28 Deep Review: Trillions of Funds Migrate, AI Foundation Forges New King! Don't lament that optical modules are history, power chips are leading the way!

Power Semiconductor Price Hike Chain: The Last Undervalued Area of AI Compute Spillover [Tao Gu Bar]

A-Share Weekend Review | June 28, 2026

Core Conclusion: 4100 points is not the end, but the starting point for chip exchange. The trillion yuan of funds from optical modules are searching for a new host, and the power semiconductor price hike chain is the direction with the largest expectation gap for absorption.

I. Capital Exodus: The Crowded Trade in Optical Modules Is Collapsing

Friday's market action already gave the most honest answer. Zhongji Innolight saw a net main force outflow of 13.46 billion yuan in a single week, Foxconn Industrial Internet net outflow of 10.39B yuan, and the "Yi, Zhong, Tian" trio combined were sold off over 26.7 billion yuan. This is not a normal adjustment; it is a collective withdrawal of institutional funds from high-level compute hardware. The chip structure has deteriorated to a critical point. Margin balance broke 3 trillion yuan for the first time, leverage funds are overly concentrated in the tech sector, and high-level doubled funds have tightened subscription limits to 100 yuan. When the most active funds can no longer flood in, collapse becomes inevitable. But the key question is: Where will the funds escaping from optical modules go?

II. High Prosperity in Semiconductors Is Consensus, Disagreement Only on "Where to Go"

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics is the hardest backing. From January to May, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% year-on-year, with the electronics industry soaring 103.9%, contributing 43.1% to the overall growth of industrial profits. Tech growth is not pure thematic hype; it is supported by real profits. The global semiconductor market is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan this year, and DRAM first-quarter revenue surged 260% year-on-year. Micron signed five-year "take-or-pay" long-term agreements totaling $22 billion with 16 core customers. Memory chips have shifted from cyclical fluctuations to an AI-driven super-long boom. But high prosperity does not equal high returns. The market is now smart enough to distinguish between "real industry chains" and "concept stocks"—over the weekend, many popular companies issued concentrated clarifications, and the differentiation between genuine and fake PCB, electronic cloth, liquid cooling, and glass substrate concept stocks became severe. Gowin Semiconductor clarified after 6 boards in 9 days that it has "no M8/M9 copper-clad laminates," and Sinoma Science & Technology's electronic cloth revenue accounted for only 3.27% of total revenue. This means that in the next stage, funds will only embrace companies with genuine industry chains that have price hike letters, orders, and significant revenue contributions.

III. Biggest Expectation Gap: Power Semiconductor Price Hike Chain

The market has focused all attention on the 100x growth of optical module exports, memory price hikes, and 30 billion expansion of advanced packaging. But a more fundamental logic chain has been severely overlooked: AI server power consumption has surged from hundreds of kilowatts to tens of megawatts, making 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power supply the standard for next-generation data centers. The stronger the computing power, the more rigid the demand for power management chips, DrMOS, MOSFET, IGBT, SiC, power modules, and analog signal chains. This is not a concept, but a physical constraint. Power costs account for over 60% of a data center's TCO, and the share of power devices in server BOM costs is far lower than memory. This means that price hikes in power semiconductors will not cannibalize end demand—data centers have extremely low price sensitivity to power devices. More critically, the price hikes have already landed. Nearly 20 global analog and power semiconductor companies officially announced price adjustments effective July 1st, with AI server-specific power management chips rising 15%-25%, and industrial automation and energy storage isolation chips rising 10%-15%. CCTV Finance confirmed: the power semiconductor industry is experiencing its second full-scale price adjustment of the year, with many companies stating that "AI-related power supply orders are overwhelming, and we simply cannot keep up with production." This is the biggest expectation gap: memory price hikes have already transmitted through the supply chain to terminal cannibalization, optical modules are so crowded that institutions are fleeing en masse, and advanced packaging, while strong, has some targets already showing huge gains—but for power semiconductors, while the market is still debating "whether it's a cyclical stock," price hike letters have already been sent to customers, and lead times have extended to over 30 weeks.

IV. Funds Are Verifying This Judgment

Friday's capital flows are the most honest voting machine. While main funds were frantically fleeing from optical modules, PCBs, and telecom sectors, semiconductor materials and power device directions have already attracted capital absorption. JCET (Changdian Technology) saw net margin buying of 30k yuan, ranking first in the entire market; GigaDevice (Zhaoyi Innovation) had net margin buying of 100k yuan; and the semiconductor materials sector saw a net main fund inflow of about 8 billion yuan this week. This is not accidental capital drift, but a systematic rotation from high-valuation, high-crowding optical modules to low-valuation semiconductor upstream materials with price hike logic and earnings support.

V. New Mainline Outline: AI Power Infrastructure Chain

Optical modules hype the "data transmission bottleneck," memory hypes "computing power crowding capacity," advanced packaging hypes "chip performance improvement"—while power semiconductors hype the "physical foundation of AI computing power." Without power infrastructure, all computing power is a castle in the air. The expansion of AI computing power brings hardware bottlenecks from the transmission layer to the storage layer to the packaging layer, ultimately spreading to the power layer. This is the last undervalued area for price elasticity spillover. Three layers of logic stack: The AI data center's 800V HVDC power supply architecture becomes standard, with power devices being the first to benefit. The three trillion-yuan tracks of new energy vehicle electronic control + photovoltaic storage inverters + charging piles are simultaneously exploding. Power semiconductor demand is not single-point driven but multi-pole resonance. The window for domestic substitution is opening. Overseas leaders raise prices and push lead times beyond 30 weeks, forcing downstream terminals to start dual supply chain layouts, accelerating domestic share growth.

VI. Sector Ranking and Trading Strategy

First Choice: Power Semiconductor / Analog Chip Price Hike Chain

Key directions: AI server power management chips, DrMOS, MOSFET, IGBT, SiC devices, analog signal chains, domestic substitution. Logic weight: Triple demand superposition + certainty of price hikes + persistent supply gap + capital perception gap.

Second Choice: Advanced Packaging + Memory

The logic is equally strong, but some targets have already seen large gains; wait for divergence before buying on dips, and avoid chasing highs.

Third Choice: Optical Modules / CPO

The mainline logic is not dead. Huagong Zhengyuan's 800G optical module exports grew over 100 times year-on-year, which is a fact. However, short-term crowding is too high. It is only suitable for left-side positioning on core targets after deep sell-offs, not for chasing rallies. Sectors to avoid: Pure concept PCB, electronic cloth, glass substrates, liquid cooling.

The density of weekend clarification announcements is too high, making it easy for short-term trends like "open high—sell off on news—reverse down to kill consensus."

VII. Three-Dimensional Judgment of the Market

Sentiment: Shifting from frenzy to divergence, panic has not yet formed. CITIC Securities explicitly points out that volatility after 4000 points is normal. This rally has been above 4000 points for over 150 trading days, the longest record among past bull markets, but the maximum drawdown is only -9.59%, the smallest in history. Friday's sharp drop is a coordinated clearance of external risk appetite shocks and internal high-level crowded profit-taking, not the end of the bull market. Fundamentals: The tech mainstay is solid. The 103.9% profit growth in the electronics industry is a real performance base. The global semiconductor market is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, and price hike transmission has spread from memory to the full industry chain of power semiconductors, specialty electronic gases, and semiconductor silicon wafers. Capital side: Leverage is high but resilient. The margin balance is 3.01 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.8% of circulating market cap, lower than the 4.72% peak in 2015. There is still room, but caution is needed. The central bank added an overnight reverse repo facility starting June 29, precisely smoothing cross-month and cross-quarter liquidity fluctuations, with liquidity expected to improve in early July.

One-Sentence Summary:

The trillion yuan of funds from optical modules are searching for a new host. Do not chase concept stocks that have been clarified, do not touch overcrowded optical modules, and do not wait for advanced packaging to finish rising before stepping in. The power semiconductor price hike chain—this is the last valuation undervalued area for AI compute spillover into power infrastructure, and the direction with the largest expectation gap as funds shift from sentiment speculation to earnings verification. The price hike letters have been sent, lead times have been extended, and orders are overflowing. While the market is still debating "whether it's a cyclical stock," the industry truth has already given the answer.