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Wu Says This Week’s Macro Indicators and Analysis: Follow-Up on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and the U.S.-Iran Negotiations
Compiled by: GaryMa WuBlockchain
Summary
Last week, the US May PCE met expectations, and the Bank of Japan meeting minutes indicated a possible rate hike in the second half of the year; this week, key focuses include follow-ups on US-Iran negotiations and the US nonfarm payroll data report.
Last Week Review
This week, the US and Iranian forces engaged in several rounds of severe direct naval and aerial clashes in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran attempted to "negotiate through fighting" to assert sovereignty over the strait and counter US-Israel's efforts to dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon, while the US's fierce military response has pushed the newly signed peace memorandum to the brink of collapse just before nuclear talks were set to begin.
US May Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year: 3.40%, expected 3.40%.
Bank of Japan meeting minutes support expectations of policy normalization, with a possible rate hike in the second half of the year.
US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 decreased by 12k to 215k, while economists had forecast 225k.
US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading: 49.5, compared to the preliminary reading of 48.9.
US June one-year inflation expectations final reading: 4.6%, expected 4.60%, prior 4.60%.
This Week's Key Events & Indicators
June 29
Closely monitor follow-ups on US-Iran negotiations
June 30
China June Official Manufacturing PMI (09:30)
July 01
US June ADP Employment Change (in ten thousands) (20:15)
US June ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
July 02
US June Unemployment Rate (20:30)
US June Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls (in ten thousands) (20:30)
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 27 (in ten thousands) (20:30)