6.29 This Week's Plan｜Recover tomorrow? Or continue to decline?

Have a great weekend, everyone! Even though I'm resting, I'll still reply when I see messages!!

[Taoguba]
Without further ado, let's start the review directly based on this weekend's news!

I. Corning Glass Bridge: Market has cognitive bias, but certainty of capital speculation remains

Recently, Corning's glass bridge technology has been trending on the board, and there are widespread misinterpretations. Many mistakenly believe the new tech will completely eliminate optical fibers, but the actual essence is that the glass bridge replaces the fiber array FAU, improving calibration accuracy for optical modules—not fully canceling the fiber structure.

From a fundamental rational judgment: The commercialization verification cycle for this technology is as long as 1-2 years, with no real performance realization currently. Domestic technology has not yet been verified on the ground, and there are overseas patent barriers. From a pure fundamental perspective, the speculative nature is strong.
However, in the secondary market, capital sentiment prevails. Even if there is a divergence in logic, the sector still has ample room for short-term speculation. The supporting TGV glass drilling process in the industry chain directly benefits. Han's Laser and Delixi Laser, as core equipment targets, are key branches of this theme speculation.

Based on the logic of the bottleneck-breaking industry chain and theme rotation thinking, there is a catch-up opportunity for strontium carbonate, an upstream raw material for glass substrates. Its trend can reference the previous capital operation path of Yunnan Germanium. Red Star Development is the core observation target.

II. Sorting out opportunities across the entire semiconductor industry chain (summary from evening exchange with Glacier)

1. Glass substrate track: Triumph Science & Technology (needs a gap-up tomorrow)

2. Electronic specialty gases like hydrofluoric acid and tungsten hexafluoride: Sanfu Chemical, Do-Fluoride, Heyuan Gas, Haohua Chemical, China Jushi Specialty Gas, Zhongtian Specialty Gas

3. Third-generation power semiconductor core targets: Silan Microelectronics, Sanan Optoelectronics

4. Laser processing equipment: Han's Laser, Delixi Laser, Delong Laser

5. Semiconductor cleanroom direction: Previously focused on Baicheng Co. in research reports, supplemented by Shenghui Integration, two key targets to track;
   Semiconductor electronic chemicals also included for observation: Hongchang Electronics, Jianghua Microelectronics, Fluorine chemicals...

III. Main line prediction for tomorrow: Focus on semiconductor materials (MLCC/PCB/CPO)

Tomorrow's stock selection direction aligns with @冰川688's thinking. The core main line locks in semiconductor material sub-sectors. Priority order: MLCC > PCB > CPO. Semiconductor electronic chemicals and semiconductor cleanrooms serve as supplementary lines.

Market sentiment deduction: It's hard for Friday's wrongfully-sold stocks to fully recover tomorrow

1. If the glass substrate continues to ferment over the weekend, the sector will open directly at limit-up tomorrow, with substantial capital diverted to speculate on new themes, increasing pressure on CPO and PCB sector rebounds;

2. The CPO sector has stronger resonance with the broader market index and a higher weighting. To drive a collective recovery of optical modules, optical fibers, and optical chips, it requires massive market volume expansion—this probability is low;

3. Expect the index to only show a weak recovery pattern tomorrow. Operationally, do not blindly open positions—only trade leading strong targets in the sector.

Comment on wrongfully-sold stocks

Changfei Optical Fiber and Hengtong Optoelectronics were clearly wrongfully sold on Friday. Hengtong Optoelectronics' recovery potential deserves more focus.

IV. Detailed tracking of sub-sectors + deep logic supplement for tungsten hexafluoride

1. Electronic fabric for PCB upstream

The sector already shows signs of valuation digestion, but the emotional rally is not over. Key negative feedback signal to watch: whether China Jushi hits limit-down; as long as China Jushi and Honghe Technology do not hit limit-down, the sector is only experiencing a phased adjustment, and the trend has not yet ended.

2. Copper foil and copper-clad laminate sectors

Track the trends of Shengyi Technology, Tongguan Copper Foil, Jinan, Baoding. As long as there is no limit-down negative feedback, the decline is defined as a short-term pullback, and there remain opportunities for subsequent trading.

3. Third-generation power semiconductors

Silan Microelectronics, Sanan Optoelectronics, and Nanda Optoelectronics still have participation value after adjustments, belonging to medium-to-long-term track logic.

4. High-position target: Yunnan Germanium

Underlying industrial logic is sound, but the stock price has preemptively priced in years of performance expectations. The risk of high-position speculation is high. Even if participating, position control is mandatory—take it step by step without heavy betting.

5. Core logic of electronic specialty gas tungsten hexafluoride (interpretation of Zhongtian Specialty Gas's decline)

Semiconductor must-have electronic specialty gas tungsten hexafluoride: current spot prices are steadily rising 1%-3% daily. The global supply-demand gap continues to widen: domestic tungsten export controls tighten, a top Japanese manufacturer permanently ceases high-end capacity in July, combined with demand explosion from AI computing chips, HBM, advanced packaging, and TGV glass substrate mass production—products remain in a perennial supply shortage.
Zhongtian Specialty Gas's tail-end plunge, after excluding deliberate manipulation, is essentially a passive wrong-sell by quant funds. The fundamental supply-demand logic has not changed, and the probability of subsequent recovery is high. Track together with Sanfu Chemical and China Jushi Specialty Gas, two capacity enterprises.

V. Final theme supplement + operation discipline

1. Latest fermented theme: Strontium carbonate, continue to track capital flows in the sector—a potential new secondary hotspot;

2. Operational reminder: Theme rotation is accelerating. If the glass substrate sector opens with divergence during the session, beware of volatility from capital flowing back to CPO/PCB; once China Jushi hits limit-down in the electronic fabric sector, realize related holdings in time; raw material speculation cannot depart from spot price fundamentals, and purely emotional chasing carries high risk;

3. In a weak recovery environment, diversify positions without going all-in. Prioritize certainty in leading stocks and avoid blindly chasing high positions.

Additional separate supplement on the game logic for the Apple chain direction, with clear separation of opportunities and risks:

1. Potential opportunity: Trump expressed support for Apple purchasing memory chips from CXMT, opening a cooperation channel between overseas Apple chain leaders and domestic memory manufacturers. This may create incremental space for domestic memory to enter Apple's supply chain, with upstream memory chips and supporting semiconductor materials having potential recovery opportunities.

2. Core risk: Currently, the Apple chain sector's price increase logic relies on the support of the memory cycle's prosperity. Once the memory cycle shows signs of weakening and prices fall, the Apple chain price increase logic will be directly weakened. There is valuation correction pressure in the sector, and blind chasing highs is not advisable.

The above are only personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice

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