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6.29 pre-market thoughts, pace speeding up, market turning choppy
Good evening, everyone!
**
Let's first review last week's market trends.**
**
Tech and popular directions experienced volatility**
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**The overall market declined
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There were two significant divergences on Tuesday and Friday, corresponding to two small cycles.**
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In the first small cycle, we observed Baiwei Storage, Dongshan Precision, Taichen Optoelectronics, and Hengtong Optoelectronics**
In the second small cycle, we observed Demingli, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Litong Electronics, and Feilong Stock
Compared to last week, the ChiNext index shifted from a primary uptrend to consolidation, increasing the difficulty, but the main line remains tech, the style is still trend-following, and the gameplay hasn't changed much from April and May.**
**
Outlook for Next Week:**
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① Weekend news flow is generally neutral. Looking purely at the index's pattern, the probability of continued consolidation is higher.
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In terms of short-term rhythm, Friday saw a big bearish candle, and US stocks also fell at night. In this situation, everyone can guess: tomorrow will open low, then rally, then pull back. Whether it can V-shape depends on volume and external factors.**
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There is also a more important tech anchor, Zhongji InnoLight. The 20-day moving average cannot be broken, or if broken, it must be reclaimed the next day; otherwise, the adjustment in this wave of tech may be relatively severe.**
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② If consolidation continues next week, we should focus on a few strong directions.
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Currently stronger sectors: semiconductors, storage, power, glass substrates, PCB upstream (especially electronic cloth).
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These directions should further narrow down next week, meaning we should keep the strong and eliminate the weak. Each major divergence is a test for picking strong stocks, and next week should also bring some new low-position names, like liquid cooling which isn't too high in position—it might just need a catalyst.**
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1: Storage: A hot topic—Apple is expected to purchase CXMT memory; also, two other companies have decent earnings reports delayed, with news on Wednesday/Thursday fermenting over the weekend.**
Logically sound ones should still be the three module makers: Demingli, Jiangbo Long, Baiwei Storage, plus GigaDevice.**
**
Other relatively smooth performers: Taiji Industrial, Shenke Technology, Yak Technology, etc.**
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2: Semiconductors: Semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials**
I just looked at the internal rhythm—individual stocks rotate quickly and are hard to grasp. In this case, it's better to choose ETFs for less hassle.**
**
3: PCB upstream: Driven by price hikes; electronic cloth performs best. Among them, the strongest is China Jushi (with strong earnings expectations), followed by more elastic International Composites, and the long-standing veteran Honghe Technology**
Similar to the earlier optical fiber, constant positive price news will keep pushing prices up. Watch for potential dip opportunities later.**
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4: Optical fiber: Electronic cloth is analogous to optical fiber, so optical fiber can be compared to storage in March—relatively high earnings certainty. Friday's pullback had two reasons: one was the shock from Corning's new glass substrate technology, the other was Han's Laser's capacity expansion—short-term minor negatives leading to a pullback, opportunity > risk**
Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optoelectronics are both swing-style stocks, with strong support at moving averages and boxes.**
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Overall, next week's rhythm will be faster. The specific path will depend on external conditions. The strong directions should also narrow down. When the market falls, look for resilient stocks; when it rises, look for leaders. No matter what, focus on the main line and find rhythm within tech.
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Best wishes~**
At the bottom left of the article, let's pool together 7 fuel coupons. Seven is enough. Thanks for the support!
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The article is only personal review, not investment advice. Entering the market carries risks; invest with caution.