Painful to hear: People who refuse to change may be doomed to spend their whole lives just getting “cut”—smart people should wake up sooner!

Hey folks, the market has been very tough lately. For most people, it's as hard as climbing to the sky and full of despair; but opportunities are also highly concentrated. For those skilled at capturing opportunities, it's still unstoppable and full of sunshine. The market is so polarized that various views and ideological conflicts are intensifying. So, how should we deal with this kind of market and how can we become the strong and the winners? [Tao Gu Ba]

1. Respecting the trend is the hardest core technique.
（1）Trend is the number one basis for stock selection.
Trends have strong inertia.
Since the beginning of this year, the training camp has recommended focusing on stocks that are in an upward trend, especially those hitting new all-time highs—including in the extremely harsh environment last Friday, with no exception. Last Friday, the training camp focused on three targets, two of which closed at new all-time highs, and one hit a new all-time high recently and pulled back to a support level last Friday.
We have repeatedly discussed a case: The famous speculative master Livermore in the early 20th century liked Bethlehem Steel when its stock price was around $50 in February 1915, but he did not buy the bottom. He only waited for the key point of breaking $100. When the stock rose above $90 and the market was狂热, he waited for 6 weeks firmly, refusing to enter early—he only traded the most certain main upward section. In early June 1915, when the stock reached $98 (about to break $100), he went all-in with leverage, using all his credit. It closed at $114–115 that day, and he used floating profits to add more positions. After Livermore succeeded, a profession emerged at the entrance of the Wall Street exchange that year: selling pamphlets analyzing "key points" of stock prices.
The training camp helps friends transform their concepts every day: only trade sectors in an upward trend. The logic is: trends have strong inertia. This is divided into two parts: First, an upward trend has strong inertia. When a stock hits a new all-time high, you may not be able to judge where it will eventually go. For example, in the past year, in the A-share market, HongHe Technology rose 40 times, Shangwei New Materials rose 37 times, Dingtai High-Tech rose 35 times, Yuanjie Technology rose 20 times, and Zhongji Innolight rose 10 times. Second, for a downward trend, there may be eighteen levels of hell beneath the floor. There are too many cases like this. Just look at Zuojang Tuili: from 299.8 to only 1.01 when delisted; look at Kweichow Moutai, and you can roughly understand the trend.
To help friends strengthen their understanding of trends, the training camp has repeatedly criticized those who focus on targets in a downward trend during training. Some individuals who refused to change their understanding were even advised to leave.
（2）What is the recent market trend?
Since May 14, the market has entered a clear downward trend. In 19 trading days, the average number of declining stocks per day is about 3,208.

The training camp deeply understands the market rhythm and is good at using "W" thinking to capture rebound opportunities in a downward trend. However, we also highly respect market rules. In mid-May, we suggested reducing attention to below half; last week, we again suggested reducing attention to 3C (through a "do T" mentality, the dynamic attention is actually around 6C).

2. Complaining about the market cannot change your fate. Smart players know to go with the flow!
When the market weakens, many investors do not promptly reflect on their own investment thinking, but instead seek self-comfort and self-anesthesia by complaining about the market. These practices are completely useless for improving your own investment capabilities. Especially for retail investors, if you don't look for reasons within yourself, even if you trade stocks until your hair turns white, you will still be a white-haired leek!—This sentence is harsh, but it's the truth! You need to reflect quickly!

** （1）Institutional "self-anesthesia."**
Last week, some institutions that focus on so-called "low valuation, high dividend" directions suffered heavy losses and began to be bearish on AI. For example, a well-known private equity institution said on June 21 that it was extremely bearish on AI, warned of an overall decline in A-shares, and significantly reduced positions while sticking to low-valuation domestic demand. The institution believed that the conditions for the bursting of the AI bubble had already appeared and it was a window to exit, not to chase gains. At the same time, it firmly favored low-valuation domestic demand (real estate/consumer/building materials).
This institution has been heavily positioned in real estate stocks for a long time. In 2023, the institution claimed that real estate was a "once-in-a-decade" big opportunity, comparable to coal stocks in early 2016, and that some high-quality real estate companies' stocks had 3–10 times upside potential.
So, what was the result? Last week, AI indeed was no longer as strong as before. But: (1) Sector indices like SMIC concept, lithography machines, electronic chemicals, electronic paper, CPO, and memory chips continued to hit new highs. (2) Did the property sector, which was bearish on tech, actually strengthen?

I am thinking: In my training camp, if there are no several perfect performances every day, some people will leave. If I did this, then I ask you, folks, would you still support me? How many would stay?
I don't mean to criticize peers, but I hope to encourage mutual progress with peers.
（2）Retail investors' "self-comfort."
Over the weekend, it was circulated online that a retail investor submitted a suggestion to a certain unit titled "Save Us, Please." The general content was:
(1) Every day, the ChiNext index surges by 100 points, but every day more than 4,000 stocks decline. Stocks like HongHe Technology, Envicool, Yunnan Germanium, Everlight Electronics, Tongguan Copper Foil, Huazheng New Materials, and Jushi Group have surged several times in half a year.
(2) The price paid is that other sectors' value leaders with good performance and moats are suppressed daily. For example, stocks with good performance like Seres, Wuliangye, Sunwoda, Rongchang Bio, etc., have already plunged by more than 50%, and even 80% of stocks have fallen by more than 60%, and are still falling without stopping.
(3) Must we, the old retail investors who stick to value investing, be forced by the main force to chase tech stocks that have surged several times or even ten times? If we don't chase tech stocks, the stocks we hold are beaten down and lose money every day. If we chase tech, we are afraid that without performance, they might crash sooner or later... I have no objection to tech stocks surging, but why must our performance-leading stocks not only not rise but be crushed? Must value investors be forced to cut losses and chase tech?
(4) I have been a retail investor for more than 10 years, and even I am terrified by this market. I experienced the stock market crash in the second half of 2015, but there was no such persistent decline. In a crash, there are a few days of decline followed by a rebound. This year, except for tech, all other sectors have been declining persistently without any rebound.
If there were friends like this in my training camp, do you know how I would "train" them? Let's simulate:

1. You clearly know that tech stocks like HongHe Technology, Envicool, Yunnan Germanium, Everlight Electronics, Tongguan Copper Foil, Huazheng New Materials, and Jushi Group have surged several times in half a year. So why haven't you participated in these half a year? You are stupid yourself. Can you blame others or the market? If you don't promptly improve your thinking and enhance your investment ability, when the next batch of HongHe Technologies appears, you will still be a complaining fool. But if you can change your thinking and improve your skills in time, then the next HongHe Technology is right at your fingertips!
2. You clearly know that stocks like Seres, Wuliangye, Sunwoda, and Rongchang Bio have plunged, so why don't you know to respect the trend? The training camp teaches top signal judgments, gap-down openings, the common sense that there might be eighteen levels of hell beneath the floor in a downtrend, etc.—these are the most basic things. You haven't even learned the most basic common sense, yet you come to invest in the stock market?—Therefore, for stocks that weaken, the training camp's overall advice has always been "stay strong, ditch weak, react in seconds," controlling risk at the first opportunity.
3. It's not wrong to stick to value investing. But here's a common sense: What drives stock prices is a combination of multiple factors, not just one. Fundamentals are only one of them. Industry cycles, trends, capital flows, sentiment, etc., are all factors driving prices. Stock prices are the comprehensive manifestation of all these factors on the chart—they don't change according to your personal will. If you can make money by knowing only one factor and not the others, why would this market need investment institutions? Therefore, the training camp's stock selection must be comprehensive: logic + capital flow + sentiment + information + historical stock character. That's the secret to the training camp's success!
4. You've been a retail investor for over 10 years, and you're scared by this market? This is just your own surprise. To put it harshly, if you don't promptly innovate your thinking and improve your skills, even if you trade until you're 90, you might still be a white-haired old leek. Therefore, from the first day you join the training camp, bravely admit: Your past self was a fool, but starting today, immediately change yourself, change your cognition, change your mindset, improve your skills, and make progress every day on the path of professionalism!

3. Is there still opportunity in the tech sector?
Let's be direct: We continue to be bullish on the tech sector! But note that opportunities may have shifted from "broad-based concept speculation" to a stage of "hard-core differentiation, performance is king," appearing in the form of structural trends.
（1）Why did tech stocks weaken last week?
Last week's weakness in tech stocks was the result of five factors叠加: global tech sentiment共振, half-year-end concentrated cash-out, crowded trading causing stampede, mid-year report expectations cooling, and regulatory cooling. The nature is short-term sentiment + capital stampede, not a trend reversal. For many high-quality targets, pullbacks are still opportunities.
Last week, US tech/semiconductors plunged, Asia-Pacific markets crashed, South Korea's KOSPI fell 9% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Samsung, SK Hynix, and other memory leaders suffered heavy losses, directly impacting A-share semiconductor, computing power, and optical module chain sentiment. June 30 is the half-year performance settlement node. In the first half of the year, AI computing power, optical modules, memory, and other tracks had huge gains. Institutions uniformly reduced positions to lock in profits, forming a "kill-the-kill" stampede. More than 30 high-level tech stocks collectively issued risk warnings, and regulatory signals cooled, causing sentiment in thematic speculation to quickly decline.
（2）What to look at in tech?

1. AI computing infrastructure. Cloud vendor capital expenditures continue to grow strongly (year-over-year increase of over 70% in 2026), expanding from training computing to inference computing and edge AI.
2. Semiconductor domestic substitution. The third phase of the Big Fund has landed, advanced wafer fabs are expanding production, and equipment/materials are entering the verification and volume production stages. Advanced packaging and other sectors may still need to be followed up.
3. Memory chips (cycle reversal + AI demand). The industry cycle has bottomed out and is recovering. AI servers + mobile/PC inventory replenishment are driving prices up continuously.
4. Optical fiber: The sector is completely transitioning from traditional communication consumables to the "physical artery" of the AI computing era, entering a super upward cycle of volume and price rising, supply-demand tension, and profit explosion. The fiber usage per rack in AI intelligent computing clusters is 5–10 times that of traditional IDC (from tens of cores to 500–1,000 cores). In 2026, global data center fiber demand is about 250 million core kilometers, accounting for 30% of total demand; North American AI demand is nearly 2 times year-over-year growth. Some institutions predict strong Q2 results, and the centralized procurement by China Mobile and China Telecom in July–August will squeeze supply, with expectations of further upward price movement for 657A1.
   In addition, MLCC, inductors, commercial aerospace, etc., may also have opportunities.

4. Important technical sharing.
Since the training camp has a large number of friends, our energy is heavily invested in the training camp (the training camp starts dynamic text sharing from 9:10 in the morning and usually doesn't finish until midnight; during the market, we often broadcast live at 11:00–12:30), so the public sharing area has been relatively compressed. The views we share are still very professional overall, but some friends are not careful when reading our information, so the effect may not be ideal. For example, last week we repeatedly emphasized: We firmly believe in optical fiber, but recently the speculation in optical fiber has shifted from pure fiber to the material side. If you noticed this analysis, there were still good opportunities in optical fiber last Friday. But if you only noticed "optical fiber" instead of "optical fiber material side," the effect goes without saying.
For example: In the optical fiber sector, Xinde XX revealed through 互动易 last Thursday that its carbon fiber products have entered the optical fiber field and are gradually passing the verification stage, and have begun small-batch supply. Pitch-based carbon fiber products have been verified by some optical fiber customers like Hengtong Optic-Electric. As a result, it hit the daily limit up last Friday.
The training camp "integrates knowledge and action" and has recently always focused on optical fiber. For example, the content focused on in the last three days:

Last Wednesday at market open, we focused on two optical fiber targets. Among them, Target 1, optical fiber material silicon tetrachloride, performed perfectly after being focused on Wednesday, and we exited on the rally Thursday, but that doesn't mean we don't continue to be bullish; as a result, we re-entered on Friday morning. Target 2, optical fiber material aramid, was focused on last Wednesday and went up consecutively; last Friday, after a sharp rise and then consolidation, we exited.
Here I want to share a technique with friends: Anchor the leader to do catch-up plays. When a sector's leader surges significantly, the lower-position targets may still have catch-up gains later. That is: The leader is responsible for opening up the sector's height space, and while the lower-position catch-up targets may not reach the leader's height, their height may not be too low either. As long as the leader does not experience significant negative feedback, lower-position targets may have continuous catch-up gains. So, when the sector rises to a certain height—after the leader loses elasticity—you don't have to buy the leader, but you can anchor the leader and look for catch-up opportunities in lower positions.
Taking the optical fiber sector as an example, the optical fiber targets focused on by the training camp last week are classic cases of "anchor the leader to do catch-up plays."
You might think: Using the training camp's cases to verify this technique may be special and not representative. So let's add another case:
As everyone knows, US stock Nvidia (some institutions predict 2026 profit of $207 billion, accounting for 66% of the entire US AI industry profit and 32.5% of global AI industry profit) has led a super bull market for US tech stocks and even global tech stocks. However, so far this year, Nvidia's stock price has only risen 3.23%, but SanDisk has risen over 800%, Western Digital over 322%, Intel surged 234%, and Lumentum surged 121%.

5. About the training camp.
Finally, a brief word about the training camp:
To ensure the training progress and quality of the training camp, training camp benefits are not open every day. Thursday evening live broadcasts will have a 20% discount benefit, lasting until before the Monday market opens. Please subscribe in time if needed. Those who miss the opportunity, please book the live broadcast and patiently wait for next Thursday evening at 21:00. Don't miss it!
Since June, the training camp has been fully upgraded, including upgrading the "S-point rule system," upgrading the depth of hot spot analysis and individual stock logic mining, and fully entering a new version. At the same time, to control the teaching pace and improve teaching quality, the training camp normally closes the benefit, only opening a 20% discount benefit during the Thursday evening live broadcast, to avoid new friends who can't keep up with the rhythm from stepping into the wrong rhythm.
You may notice that only a few "Hall of Fame" teachers on the platform currently offer "training camps." Being qualified to open a training camp relies not on hype but on the true insights precipitated by long-term market practice and an investment analysis system that has stood the test. Without solid professional accumulation, you wouldn't even have the qualification to open a training camp!

** Why is the training camp's pricing so affordable?** Unlike other platform teachers who only give codes and let you lose everything, the training camp focuses on the long-term cause of "teaching to fish." The training camp will teach you the six major sector systems hand-in-hand, and through vivid cases, help you form instincts and reflexes for the market, gradually building your own professional investment literacy.
Why is the training camp worth your investment? In your stock trading career, how many times have you had a "major loss" due to a "slight carelessness"? The monthly cost of the training camp is far less than the losses you might incur from "one wrong move." Are you willing to sink in the "boiling frog" market, or are you willing to take the path of professional development? Moreover, everyone knows that good stocks often perform perfectly within three minutes of the market open. For such opportunities, you must have the ability to "react in seconds"—while you might still be dazed, others have already called it a day. Are you willing to make some attempts to have the ability to capture the strongest opportunities in the entire market? Everything is in a single thought! (Warm reminder: There is risk in the stock market, invest carefully. There is no training that guarantees profits; the stock market is risky, invest rationally and respect the market—that is the long-term way.)
Full companionship throughout June without absence. I will update exclusive pre-market deep thinking on my homepage every day, free and synchronized to preview market ideas. New followers, please set me as "special follow." When there are the latest core thoughts and live broadcast reminders, the platform will immediately push them accurately, so you won't miss any core market rhythm.

** Finally, I sincerely thank every family member who has trusted and accompanied us all the way! Special thanks to every friend who recently supported the live broadcast and original content**: @幸福的四叶草 @目光所至皆福 @天天干杯 @lcq1678 @涨停板2023 @旭哥请发财 @苔花也学牡丹开 @小李的炒股 @追逐C @排骨炖土豆 @自由生活118 @上岸的海星 @来来去去走走停停 @Z好运连连 @刀剑笑66 @三千凯旋 @糯米团子没有心 @多彩涂料陈工 @学会成长的韭菜 @海晏裕清 @韭菜猴 @firesnipe @微微一笑很倾城888 @理想7 @land @小满9022 @JQSY @SKY夢想家 @公司简介四个睡觉睡觉 @红苹果33 @仁哥 @稻草哥哥 @紫股东来 @业余之外 @lnkww @一路向东2024 @蓝色蓝 @红红V @小二小123 @chianjiaren @不要马赛克 @阿波123 @cznnn @明日天地总有彩虹 @susanjulie @半世风尘 @彩霞l6 @别有洞天 @硕果飘香 @sui风zy @弘芳芳 @卓尔不群 @用心守候 @时间玫瑰之慢慢复利 @航1105 @韭菜的绿 @万年松98888 @道生一一生二三生万物 @悟道登峰 @已知的过去未知的未来 @我心飞翔8890 @八一台021 @大姐炒股 @乖乖牛 @古城小工 @华众鹏 @一战封侯 @桃之夭夭0707 @leevo @Cheney369 @一只粉熊 @日日红红步步高
Also thanks to the friends who gave fuel coupons to our previous original post: @幸福的四叶草 @旭哥请发财 @land @浪迹里脊 @天道酬勤11111 @杯中茶水见倒影 @好运常伴丫 @短狙作手@宝贝女儿桐
** Many friends in the comments of our previous article gave high praise to our professionalism and sincere support and encouragement. Thank you deeply! Let us all encourage each other and move forward bravely!** @红苹果33, @SCR心地善良, @知行7788, @苔花也学牡丹开, @见花如面, @好运常伴丫, @木棉花开420, @坤666888, @悦川, @跟菜神学炒股, @天天系列008, @澄665, @陆遥2023, @韭菜猴, @来来一起, @SKY夢想家, @黄金十年3108, @多彩涂料陈工, @命运2021, @淡然W, @颍州敢死队, @炒红一片天, @巍峨的山峰, @金色传说Kite, @琳琳971028, @张小贝, @闻哈哈, @学会成长的韭菜, @mi66, @阿波123

Disclaimer:
Investment carries risk, and trading requires caution. Plans never change faster than the market; all actions should follow dynamic adjustments based on the market. The content of this article is only my understanding,复盘, and thinking about the market. It is personal thought and records only and does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only. Follow at your own risk and responsibility for profits and losses!