The current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 237 days, the fourth longest in history, but the maximum drawdown is only 53%, far lower than the 76%-84% of the previous three. Behind the moderate decline lies the cost of institutional capital stepping in and market maturation—continuous ETF outflows, pressure on miners' costs, and a fragmented on-chain structure.

A smaller decline doesn't mean lower risk. Institutionalization reduces the probability of a crash but extends the clearing cycle. CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin retraced from its $124.8k high, hitting $58,115 on June 25, while the short-term holder cost basis remains at $74,800—a divergence that has lasted eight months.
On-chain signals are equally contradictory: the UTXO model shows capitulation signals, historically indicating a long-term buying point; but miner profit margins are compressed to breakeven, STR decoupling, and the cost structure is being rewritten. OG selling has dropped to its lowest in nearly two years, with sell-side exhaustion, yet a liquidity trap also exists.
Market consensus is that "below $60k is cheap," but cheap doesn't mean an immediate rebound. The MVRV curve hints at a weak rebound in July, not exceeding $70k; the mid-term bottoming process may extend to September–October. If ETF capital flows don't improve in Q3, structural cracks may widen further.
Institutional intervention turns the bear market into a "slow bear," with moderated declines but prolonged duration. For traders, focusing on the short-term holder cost basis and miners' breakeven levels is more meaningful than guessing the bottom.
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