Bitcoin fell below $60k this week, with the second quarter expected to drop about 12%, and the first quarter already down 22%. If confirmed, it would set a rare record of two consecutive quarterly declines.

But this bear market is a bit different: it has lasted 237 days, the fourth longest in history, with a maximum drawdown of only 53.43%, far lower than the 76%-84% of the previous three times. Behind the mild decline are institutional capital stepping in, ETF liquidity, and market maturity at play.
The other side of the coin: funds are flowing from crypto to the AI semiconductor sector, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows, and the Fed's hawkish stance and strong dollar are suppressing risk assets. The negative premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase has widened, indicating weak buying by US institutions.
On-chain signals are also diverging: UTXO data shows signs of capitulation, but the MVRV curve suggests a possible short-term weak rebound. Analysts believe Bitcoin below $60k is cheap, but the rebound potential may be limited.
The biggest structural change is the diversion of funds. AI infrastructure spending (data center construction exceeds the total of airports and ports) has siphoned off a large amount of hot money, and crypto is no longer the only high-growth narrative. Whether Bitcoin can regain capital favor in the third quarter depends on whether ETF inflows recover and whether macro conditions ease.
The risk is: if the AI sector in US stocks continues to drain liquidity, the crypto market may fall into a longer period of sideways consolidation. However, historical data shows that the longer a bear market lasts, the greater the subsequent rebound potential — it's just that this time may require more patience.
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