The broad market is falling unilaterally, and industry news is restructuring chip segmentation opportunities.

The market weakened unilaterally on Friday, with major indexes falling sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped over 2%, and the ChiNext Index approached a decline of 4%. Two-city trading volume remained at the level of 3.5 trillion yuan, with over 4,000 stocks closing lower, and panic sentiment spreading.

Previously favored AI hardware sectors saw concentrated profit-taking, with optical communication and PCB heavyweight stocks collectively plunging. Zhongtian Technology and more than 30 high-level stocks experienced significant pullbacks, while only a few sub-sector stocks showed independent trends. [Taogu Bar]

Structural fragmentation in the market is evident: Ultrasonic Electronics relied on consecutive limit-up sentiment to achieve six limit-ups in nine days; glass substrate maker Laibao Hi-Tech and cleanroom specialist Xinlai Yingcai strengthened against the trend; on the storage side, Demingli closed in the red on the back of price hike logic.

In secondary sectors, commercial aerospace and photovoltaic equipment saw brief rotations, with Aerospace Engineering and China Satellite hitting limit-ups to offset market pessimism. Overall sector rotation lacked persistence, and risk aversion among funds increased significantly.

Multiple heavy industry news items landed over the weekend, reshaping the medium- to long-term prosperity logic of the semiconductor sector. Divergent trends will continue:

1. Major catalyst for domestic storage substitution: Apple, impacted by global memory price hikes, has raised product prices and is lobbying the U.S. to approve procurement of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) DRAM, breaking the monopoly of three overseas manufacturers and opening incremental demand space for domestic storage vendors.

2. The July semiconductor price hike wave fully materialized: Nearly 20 overseas analog and power chip companies, including Texas Instruments and Infineon, officially announced price increases in July, with AI server power chip increases reaching up to 25%. Domestic IDM manufacturers followed suit, leading to upward revisions in sector earnings expectations.

3. The logic of computing power supporting infrastructure continues to strengthen: Nvidia released a full liquid-cooled computing platform, providing long-term certainty for demand in sub-sectors such as liquid cooling and cleanrooms. SK hynix raised substantial funds to expand production and purchase EUV lithography machines, extending the global wafer capacity shortage cycle.

4. Supply contraction in high-end electronic materials: Several Japanese and Korean chemical companies have reduced production of key electronic materials, with prices of tungsten hexafluoride and zirconium-based materials continuing to rise. Upstream material companies fully benefit from the supply-demand gap.

Based on market trends and information, the core judgment for next week:

Overall market risk appetite is unlikely to recover in the short term. The selling pressure on high-level positions in optical modules and PCB, which have seen huge gains earlier, remains. Any rebound should be used to reduce positions.

The market focus will shift to undervalued sub-sectors with strong price hike certainty, such as analog power, storage, semiconductor consumables, liquid cooling, and cleanrooms. The price hike logic can hedge against the risk of a broad market correction.

Commercial aerospace and humanoid robots are only suitable for short-term small-position speculation; do not take heavy positions.

In terms of mindset, it is recommended to consider reducing overall allocation, avoiding high-level pure sentiment AI hardware targets; take advantage of divergences to position in sub-sectors with fundamental support such as semiconductor price hikes, domestic storage, and electronic specialty gases. Diversify evenly and cautiously, reduce short-term trading frequency, and wait for market sentiment to stabilize before increasing the allocation proportion.

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