Gap rate 38%? CCTV exposed "100 times growth"! Why are these 3 companies the best performers in electronic cloth + optical fiber in July?

Behind Super Mega Bull Stocks: 99% Probability Only Related to: Earnings![Taoguuba]
** Case: April 2026 earnings ignited: CPO + Memory Chips! Big explosion! **
** CPO leader: Zhongji Innolight surged 130% in 2 months, from 600 billion to 140M market cap! **
** Memory chip leader: DeMingli rose 87% in 2 months, from 80 billion to 150 billion! **
Who do you think will have the most surprising and explosive earnings in July?

(Written at 1:50 AM, on a business trip to Sanming! Please forgive any shortcomings! Hope for likes and support! Because I have been writing research reports on optical fiber and electronic cloth continuously in February and March, and today I am tracking again before the earnings release!)

1. Event Driver: Why is the July earnings explosion of electronic cloth + optical fiber just the beginning?

1. Anchor Point 1: CCTV live footage, production lines running at full capacity 24/7 is not enough! Export data is explosive: Computing power related products overseas "100x growth"!

Computing power hardware overseas "hundredfold growth": CCTV recently reported that since this year, computing power related products have accelerated overseas, and a Wuhan company's 800G+ optical module exports increased over 100 times year-over-year. China's mechanical and electrical product exports reached 7.58 trillion yuan (accounting for 63.6%), setting a new monthly high for 15 consecutive months since March 2025. This confirms that global AI computing power infrastructure is not just on PPT but has been transformed into tangible hardware shipments.
Electronic cloth production lines "24-hour full production": CCTV reporters visited a factory in Jiaxing, Zhejiang, where nearly 1,000 looms are running 24 hours a day in the workshop, with no downtime for maintenance. The micro-level "machines never stop, orders queuing" is the most realistic portrayal of extreme industry shortage.
2. Anchor Point 2: Overseas leader pricing anchor: Corning fiber quotes open the domestic price increase ceiling
Corning pricing strategy: As the absolute global fiber leader, Corning recently announced that due to severe global fiber supply shortage, its G.652.D standard fiber prices will continue to rise, with a year-end target price of $25 per core km (approximately 180 yuan per core km).
Anchoring effect: Currently, the domestic G.652.D price is about 83 yuan per core km. Corning's quote directly opens more than 100% upside room for domestic fiber price increases. Overseas giants take the lead in raising prices, and domestic leaders will follow suit—it's just a matter of time.
3. Anchor Point 3: Macro data confirms: National Bureau of Statistics reveals the "super profit" era has arrived
Profit surge of 665.4%: The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to May, profits in electronic specialty materials manufacturing increased 665.4% year-over-year, and the overall profit of the electronics industry increased 103.9% year-over-year, contributing 43.1% to the total industrial profit growth above designated size.
Core reflection: The "6x" profit surge in electronic specialty materials is mainly driven by electronic cloth and optical fiber preforms, which are at the center of the price increase storm. Macro data completely disproves the "mild recovery" thesis and confirms that the industry has entered a "volume and price rising together" super-profit stage.
Common direction of the three anchor points: Demand side (100x optical module exports, AI capex) + Supply side (equipment / preform locked) + Financial realization (665.4%) appear together for the first time. July enters the triple overlap of electronic cloth price jump + optical fiber summer peak season + interim report preview. It's just the beginning.

2. Deficit Determines That Price Increases Won't Stop: 2025→2029 Quantitative Table + Cost Structure

1. Electronic Cloth by Type | 2025→2029 Supply, Demand, and Prices

Low-DK 2nd Generation Low Dielectric Cloth (High-end AI dedicated)

Cost elasticity: Electronic yarn accounts for about 60-70% of electronic cloth cost; according to China Jushi, each 1 yuan/meter increase in 7628 leads to about +10 billion net profit for the year. If the 2027 average price reaches 15 yuan, the electronic cloth business profit could exceed 75.8k, and parent company net profit could reach 1B.

Honghe Technology's 2026 Q1 electronic cloth average price rose from 4.51 to 9.78 yuan, gross margin approached 60%, parent company net profit increased +354% year-over-year—this is a sample of high-end elasticity realized.

2. Optical Fiber by Type | 2025→2029 Supply, Demand, and Prices

Specialty optical fiber (G.657 bend-resistant fiber, hollow-core fiber)

Huatai estimates a global optical fiber deficit of 15B core km in 2026, expanding to 22B / 9.2% deficit in 2027; CRU estimates a total cable deficit of 35M core km / 16.4% in 2026—the two estimates ("fiber filtering out preform-constrained effective supply" vs. "total cable assembly") differ due to conversion from preform → fiber → cable, but the direction is completely consistent: 2026 is the inflection point from surplus to deficit, and the deficit expands in 2027.

3. Why can the upward trend continue until after 2027?
   Equipment rigidity locked: Toyota JAT910 loom annual capacity 2000-2400 units, new orders delivery already scheduled for 2028-2030 → high-end electronic cloth capacity ceiling locked for 3-4 years. Preform production line 18-24 months + equipment delivery 8-12 months + ramp-up 6-12 months = 476-day rigid window, new capacity earliest 2027 H2 commissioning, 2028 volume release.
   Customer certification 1-2 years: High-end electronic cloth entering NVIDIA/TSMC supply chain takes 6-18 months of full-process verification; once passed, no supplier switching—new capacity won't grab share.
   AI Capex not yet peaked: North America's top four clouds' 2026 AI Capex totals $725 billion, +77% YoY; Goldman Sachs nine global CSPs 2026 total $830 billion; 800G optical modules 2026 shipments 60 million units, 1.6T jumps to 67 million units in 2027—demand curve is steeper than supply curve.
   Long-term contracts lock volume until 2030: Meta's $6 billion optical fiber long-term contract with Corning (through 2030); NVIDIA pulled Corning's US capacity +50% in May; Amazon locked Corning with billions of dollars in June—it's not "shortage now," it's "pre-booked for the next 5 years."
   Summary: So the true meaning of "July is just the beginning": Electronic cloth price jump in July + optical fiber summer peak season + interim report preview (electronic specialty materials +665.4% already set an example) + 3Q Kingboard 70k tons / Jushi Phase II 50k tons electronic yarn only starts production, then nearly a year with no new supply—3Q end to 4Q is the tightest period for electronic yarn, and fiber will be squeezed further by China Mobile and China Telecom procurement in August.

Three: Electronic Cloth Industry Chain: "Yarn shortage" is more acute than "machine shortage"; existing equipment defines super cycle

Electronic cloth is the core base material for copper-clad laminates (CCL), ultimately used in PCB circuit boards, serving as the "skeleton material" for AI server hardware interconnection. This boom is a resonance between AI computing power demand explosion and physical supply capacity fracture.

1. Demand Side: PCB value leaps 233%, structural explosion across all categories
   NVIDIA's Rubin architecture brings a historic breakthrough in AI server PCB value:
   Volume explosion: Rubin VR200 rack PCB cost jumps from $35.1k (GB300) to $116.7k (233% increase); new Midplane middle boards and other components double or more the electronic cloth usage per unit. Quality upgrade: High-speed signal transmission requires PCB to upgrade to M8/M9 ultra-low loss materials, driving demand for Low-DK 2nd generation low dielectric cloth and ultra-thin cloth. 2026 second-gen LDK cloth demand about 50 million meters, expected to grow to 150 million meters in 2027 (CAGR 200%). All categories squeezed: Manufacturers prioritize high-margin high-end orders, significantly squeezing capacity for ordinary 7628 cloth, causing simultaneous shortage in traditional consumer electronics and industrial control ordinary cloth, forming a pattern of "high-end leading, all categories following."
2. Supply Side: Triple rigid barriers, unsolvable before end of 2027
   (1) First constraint: Electronic yarn—production capacity gap in upstream raw materials
   Long construction cycle: An electronic yarn tank furnace takes 12-18 months from project initiation to stable mass production, plus 3-6 months ramp-up. Historical capacity gap: 2022-2024 industry downturn led to capital expenditure contraction, creating a two-year capacity window. Expansion started in H2 2025, effective supply earliest H2 2027. Current shortage: The entire industry is in "prepayment lock order" mode, no spot available, downstream cloth mills' raw material inventory less than 10 days.
   (2) Second constraint: High-end looms—supply rigidity under tiered monopoly (core barrier)
   Electronic cloth, especially ultra-thin cloth and low dielectric cloth, heavily relies on specialized air-jet looms. The industry shows a pattern of "absolute monopoly in high-end, domestic catch-up in mid-to-low end."

3. Global electronic cloth air-jet loom tier ranking

Core conclusion: High-end electronic cloth capacity driven by AI computing power is almost entirely tied to Toyota JAT910 looms. This equipment's annual capacity is rigid, delivery lead time 3-4 years, directly locking the global high-end electronic cloth capacity ceiling for the next 3-4 years.
4. Domestic core electronic cloth companies' loom holdings and capacity positioning

Third constraint: Process certification—customer barrier lengthens volume ramp-up time
High-end electronic cloth entering the AI server supply chain requires multi-level certification from CCL manufacturers, PCB manufacturers, and terminal server manufacturers, a process lasting 1-2 years, making it difficult for new entrants to ramp up quickly.
6. Price trend: Price increase slope steepens, existing capacity faces Davis double play

Since the price increase started in October 2025, the industry has completed five collective price increases, and July will enter an accelerated jump phase:
7628 ordinary cloth: from 3.7 yuan to 7.7 yuan (+100%), expected to jump to 8.3 yuan in July, 2027 midpoint seen at 15 yuan. Second-gen Low-DK cloth: from 80 yuan to 160 yuan (+100%), production lead time over 4 months, AI core rigid demand, price ceiling very high. Industry chain pass-through: Electronic cloth price increases are smoothly transmitted to CCL; Panasonic, Taiwan Union Technology, and other leading manufacturers' July price increases are confirmed.

Four: Optical Fiber Industry Chain: Under the "rigid constraint" of preforms, AI and dual-drive military demand drive volume and price rise

1. Demand Side: AI computing power exponential expansion, triple resonance magnifies deficit
   AI computing power infrastructure (core engine): A single ultra-large AI computing center consumes 3-5 times more optical fiber than a traditional IDC; a ten-thousand-card GPU cluster requires hundreds of thousands of core km of full interconnection. 2026 global data center optical fiber demand is expected to exceed 100 million core km, with AI demand share rising from less than 5% in 2024 to 35% in 2027. Military demand (new variable): Fiber-guided FPV drones create "one-time consumption" demand. 2026 global military specialty fiber demand could reach 80 million core km, and military-grade drawing efficiency is 10-15% lower, further crowding out civilian capacity. Traditional telecom (stable base): China's top three operators' annual procurement about 230 million core km, dual gigabit and 10-gigabit optical network construction supports the base.
2. Supply Side: Preform capacity rigidly locked, supply elasticity approaches zero before 2027

Optical fiber preform (preform) accounts for 60%-70% of optical fiber cost, is the most core bottleneck restricting supply:

Multiple barriers lock expansion: Preform production line construction takes 18-24 months, involves extremely high process barriers; core equipment relies on imports (delivery over 12 months), high-purity germanium tetrachloride and other raw materials tight. Historical capital expenditure gap: Price war from 2022-2024 led to cap ex contraction, forming a 2-3 year capacity window. New planned capacity earliest 2027 end production. Supply-demand deficit: 2026 global total cable demand about 577 million core km, effective supply constrained by preforms only 397 million core km, hard gap of 180 million core km. Top manufacturers' utilization rate 100%, orders scheduled through H2 2027.

3. Price elasticity: Specialty leads, ordinary follows, huge upside compared to overseas

Specialty fiber (AI rigid demand): G.657.A2 preform price rose from 22-30 yuan at the start of the year to 160 yuan (nearly 550% increase); finished fiber up to 240 yuan (over 650% increase). Ordinary fiber (deficit transmission): Mainstream G.652.D single-mode fiber rose from below 20 yuan to 83.4 yuan (over 400% increase). Compared to Corning's year-end target of $25 (about 180 yuan), domestic ordinary fiber still has over 100% upside.

Five: Beneficiary Companies:

1. Electronic cloth full industry chain beneficiaries

2. Optical fiber full industry chain beneficiaries

Summary: This super cycle in electronic cloth and optical fiber is essentially a deep mismatch between "infinite demand from AI computing infrastructure" and "limited supply of high-end equipment/preforms." The July earnings explosion is just the beginning; before the supply-demand deficit peaks in 2027, the price increase slope will continue to steepen. The leading companies that accumulated the richest existing capacity during the industry downturn are at the core of this Davis double play.
Electronic cloth industry: The core contradiction is yarn shortage + high-end loom shortage. Midstream leaders are the main beneficiaries, high-end specialty cloth companies have greater elasticity than ordinary cloth companies; downstream CCL is the second tier of price pass-through.
Optical fiber industry: Preform is the biggest supply bottleneck. Leaders with preform self-sufficiency, specialty fiber layout, and overseas orders have larger profit space; upstream equipment and raw material shortage continuously amplifies industry prosperity.
Now understand why July might just be the beginning? Who is the core? Do you understand where earnings will be realized? Who is the laggard catch-up? If you don't know:
Like + Share + Comment: **Deficit rate 38%? CCTV exposed "100x growth"! Why are these 3 companies the best earnings performers in July for electronic cloth + optical fiber? **

The above is just personal trading review and reflection. Investment carries risks, trade with caution! Plans never change as fast as situations; all must be combined with market action. The content is personal thinking and records, recording my understanding of the market, for personal sharing only, not constituting any investment advice, for reference only, buy/sell at your own risk!
(It's not easy to compile and organize materials. Your: like + share + comment is the motivation for our efforts, thank you!)

General Market Situation: The market did not break upward through the 4200 resistance. Instead, it was affected by US stocks and experienced a sharp decline, breaking below the key support level of 4065 we have been reminding about, and then fell to the 4000 support we mentioned. It finally stabilized at 4007 and rebounded, but resulted in 4600 stocks falling, causing overall damage and losses. So the problem with A-shares is following declines but not advances. They say US stocks live in fear of a crash every day, while we live in a scenario of over 4000 stocks waiting to rise every day. Which life do you prefer? Finally, only 753 stocks rose across the market, 4392 fell, with a total trading volume of 3.55 trillion. Looking at the turning point on the 1st, then see the thinking through the 6th. Still maintain the judgment that July is not changing!

Sentiment: Today sentiment dropped to freezing point, 60 stocks hit daily limit up, 30 limit down, sealing rate 64%, and total consecutive board count 8, with up to 6 boards.
Sectors: The current core main line: computing power engineering, and the strongest sectors: computing power engineering + robots + chips! Overall technology is still the core focus; other sectors are harder to break out!! Supporting sectors: glass substrate + industrial gas + organosilicon + liquid cooling!
Computing power engineering: Leader is Xingye Technology 6 boards, watch Ultrasonic Electronics 9 days 6 boards and Guanghe Technology's breakout, etc.
Chip industry: Leader switched to Guozhong Lu 2 boards, additionally watch Shenghui and Shuangliang's breakout, overall thinking on equipment, packaging, and photoresist.
Robots: Leader Tianyu Shuke 6 days 4 boards, and look at Jindi and Bentu's 1 board push.
Success has no shortcuts, only self-discipline and persistence! Wishing you, who are always striving, the harder you work, the luckier you get!

Today's Highlights:

1. China's new breakthrough in superconducting magnet development for nuclear fusion reactors;
2. Next week A-share market cap of unlocked shares exceeds 100 billion yuan, 16 stocks have unlock ratio over 10%, Huafeng Technology, Rongchang Bio, XinDong Lianke rank top three with unlock market caps of 82M, 1.6T, and 70k yuan respectively
3. Zhang Jianping's wife Fang Wenyan reduced holdings of Jianghuai Auto by 50k shares from June 10 to June 23. From June 10 to June 23, Jianghuai Auto's highest price was 33.51 yuan/share, lowest 28.82 yuan/share, average 31.39 yuan/share. Estimated at average price, Fang Wenyan cashed out about 290 million yuan.
4. Main funds heavily rotated, over 26.7 billion yuan withdrawn from "Yi Zhong Tian"
5. Power semiconductors restart tiered price adjustments; some manufacturers say "AI-related power orders are full, can't handle them"
6. Since this year, computing power related products accelerated overseas; a Wuhan company's 800G+ optical module exports increased over 100 times year-over-year
7. National Bureau of Statistics: January-May electronic specialty materials manufacturing profit increased 665.4% YoY; January-May electronics industry profit increased 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to total industrial enterprise profit growth above designated size
8. [Nasdaq closed down 0.2%, chip stocks fell, Western Digital dropped 13%]

Tracking Commodity Themes

1. Live pigs 9.43 (0%, pig cost 12, Muyuan 11.6, feed over 50%, labor 10-15%.)
2. Battery lithium carbonate 178k (1.71%, salt lake cost 30,000-40k, spodumene 60,000-90k, lepidolite 60,000-90,000.)
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