The Bitcoin four-year cycle is still intact, evidence as follows:



2012 halving → 2013 top
2016 halving → 2017 top
2020 halving → 2021 top
2024 halving → 2025.10 top (126k)
Perfectly aligns with the historical pattern of "peaking about 500 days after halving"

Although drawdowns are narrowing, the pattern remains unchanged
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -77%
2025–2026: currently -53%
If this path repeats, then it will bottom in the fourth quarter of this year, likely forming a bottom around 5w, followed by a raging bull market. Attached is a screenshot taken three years later👇🏻$BTC
BTC-1.79%
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LateAlphaCourier
· 8h ago
I believe in the 500-day rule, first halve the position.
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MarketMakingForMoonlitDeepPool
· 8h ago
50k bottom? Then I'll place a buy order at 48k.
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MirrorBallPeeking
· 9h ago
2025.10 tops at 126k, this accuracy to the month is a bit mystical.
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OwlChainViewer
· 9h ago
The convergence of retracement amplitude indicates that the market has matured, but the term "violent bull market" never goes out of style.
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