The Energy Chain and AI Chain support a divergence in domestic profitability; overseas buybacks and local-currency swaps help RMB internationalization—W26 domestic macro digest

  • The growth rate of industrial enterprise profits in May edged down to 21.1% from April, but remained above the first quarter's 15.5%, with revenue growth continuing to rebound. Energy and AI-related industries were the main drivers of profit growth, while supply shocks weakened capacity utilization in the midstream and downstream sectors, exacerbating profit divergence across industries.
  • The war exposed the fissures in the US dollar settlement system, creating a historic opportunity for the internationalization of the renminbi. China's trade volume is already large enough, and the current focus lies in liquidity provision; the expansion of the central bank's offshore financial instruments holds more potential than the opening of the capital account.
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