The bulls are ready to die!!!

Now is the time to short them

Good news is here, positions are being unwound, positions are being unwound

Combining the current macro environment and on-chain data, my core view is: the market is currently in a resonance period of "macro headwinds" and "liquidity drought." Blindly bottom-fishing is like catching a falling knife; going with the flow and playing defense and counterattack is the optimal solution at present.

Here are my in-depth personal views on these two assets:

1. Bitcoin: The "Liquidity Black Hole" Under Macro Pressure

Personal Assessment: I am currently cautiously bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin breaking below $60k is not just a technical breakdown, but a direct reflection of the deterioration in macro liquidity. The heightened expectations of Fed rate hikes and geopolitical conflicts (such as the US-Iran situation) pushing up oil prices have led to a surge in global risk aversion, with funds frantically fleeing non-yielding risk assets. Coupled with multiple consecutive weeks of net outflows from spot ETFs, institutions are "voting with their feet."

Trading Suggestions: Do not have high expectations for a rebound before liquidity substantially improves. My strategy is "don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes." Patiently wait for prices to rebound to the resistance level around $62k, and only after confirming that the upward momentum is exhausted, open a small short position. If it directly breaks below the $60k mark, it indicates panic selling is flooding out, and you need to be wary of accelerated declines to $55k or even lower.

2. Ethereum: Fundamentals Deteriorating, But Beware of Backlash from "Extreme Sentiment"

Personal Assessment: Compared to Bitcoin, I am more pessimistic about Ethereum at present. Ethereum is facing severe "internal and external troubles": externally, there is continuous outflow from spot ETFs; internally, the Ethereum Foundation has laid off 20% of its staff, key core team members have collectively resigned, and the technical roadmap (such as L2) is being questioned. This shake in fundamentals has caused the market to lose faith in it.

Trading Suggestions: Although the fundamentals are extremely poor, I personally do not recommend blindly chasing short positions at the current level. Short positions in the market are currently extremely crowded, and the "Fear and Greed Index" is at an extreme value of extreme fear. Under such extreme sentiment, any small trigger (such as a whale stepping in to buy the dip) could cause a violent "short squeeze rebound." Therefore, for $ETH , I tend to "watch more and trade less." If you must participate, you must set a very tight stop loss to guard against reverse surges caused by short covering.

Summary of my trading philosophy:
In the current bear market bottom-finding phase, "preserving capital" is far more important than "seizing opportunities." The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the chips to survive under extreme market conditions. Patiently wait for a right-side stabilization signal, and use strict discipline to combat human greed and fear—that is the key to riding through bull and bear markets.
$BTC #预测市场交易量创历史新高 #BTC下探60000美元关键关口