📉 Why is the upward momentum insufficient?

* Increased supply pressure: Although the situation between the US and Iran has fluctuated, market concerns about a实质性 supply disruption are fading. Additionally, production increase expectations from some OPEC+ countries and rising non-OPEC supply (e.g., US shale oil) are loosening the supply-demand balance, capping upside potential.
* Weak demand expectations: The slowdown in global economic recovery (especially industrial demand), coupled with the substitution effect of new energy, has suppressed the oil price center. Most institutions have a bearish or range-bound outlook for the second half of the year.
* Technical resistance: WTI has been battling around the $70/barrel level recently. If it fails to firmly hold key resistance levels (e.g., the $72–75 range), it is likely to retest support and move lower.

## 🔍 Under what circumstances will it rise?

A rise mainly depends on sudden geopolitical events (such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or a sharp escalation in conflict) or a stronger-than-expected demand recovery. Without such strong catalysts, prices are likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels to digest previous gains, rather than staging a sustained rally.