2026-6-28

After sleeping only 4 hours in 2 days, I'll go to the hospital again soon. My father-in-law is recovering well. I estimate he can be discharged in about 4~5 more days.
If your parents are over 55, it's best to have a physical exam every year. With early detection and treatment, the prognosis will be much, much better. If one parent has passed away, try to have the other live with you so you can notice any abnormalities in time. You can always make money, but you only have one set of parents.
It's tough for our post-80s generation. Most of us are only children, so we have to handle everything ourselves. Looking at it now, rather than leaving an inheritance for children, I think it's better to give them siblings. If one day they have to pull the plug, at least the pressure won't be on them alone, and the psychological trauma would be much less.
From tonight until tomorrow's night session, as I recall it's the second round of US-Iran negotiations. For now, this can only be seen as a pullback; we cannot confirm that the market has a "risk-off" sentiment. Without volume, there is a directionless slow rise and fall. If it can hold above 597 without breaking down by tomorrow noon, or if tonight's pullback does not break the upward trend line below, such as 595 (this line forms a higher low on the spot chart; mine is a futures chart), then it's not a big problem. If you have no position at all, every time the price touches the line can be considered an opportunity to establish a position, but the closer it is to the monthly contract rollover, the smaller your position should be. If it's still directionless into month-end, there's a good chance that early next month (around the 3rd or 5th~8th) it will quickly crash to create a "panic selloff" and then start a real rebound. As long as you don't go all-in at once, it's fine. After a volume-based drop, wait for a 5-minute candle to close green, then open a position on the next candle. Dragging it out to after the 8th should stabilize. Looking at the weekly and monthly charts alone, it's unlikely that 580 is the recent iron bottom. Only a major positive catalyst—one significant enough to re-evaluate our pricing—could cause it to V-reverse straight up from here without looking back.
If 597 is lost, it's better to wait around 591. If that level also breaks, just observe, don't rush to enter.
It's not that I'm always bearish on the market; rather, I plan for the worst-case scenario from the start, so when a drop actually happens, I won't be caught off guard. As the saying goes, without expectations, there is no disappointment.