The US-Iran situation has suddenly changed!

Originally, the market believed that the interim agreement had been signed, ships could move slowly, oil prices could gradually fall, and the two sides still had 60 days to negotiate details. But now, after the Panamanian-flagged oil tanker M/T Kiku was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military has launched airstrikes on Iranian targets for the second consecutive day.

According to the US side, this strike covered targets including Iranian military surveillance, communications, air defense, drone storage, and mine-laying capabilities.

Some media outlets say the US military struck 10 Iranian military targets.

This is not simply a one-time retaliation.

The day before, the US military had just struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar stations after a merchant ship was attacked; the next day, it continued operations after the tanker was attacked.

In other words, the ceasefire agreement is still on paper, but Hormuz has already turned back into a battlefield.

Iran's response is also tough. The IRGC claimed to have launched missile and drone strikes on US-related targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Bahrain sounded alarms, and Kuwait activated its air defense systems. The US side said it has not yet received reports of US casualties or significant damage, but this is already the most serious round of direct confrontation under the ceasefire framework.

The real core is the right of passage through Hormuz.

The US wants "free, unconditional, and unrestricted passage"; Iran wants recognition of its control over the strait's shipping lanes, even requiring vessels to follow Iran-approved routes.

Oil tankers, merchant ships, drones, radar stations, and mine-laying facilities—on the surface they are military targets, but behind them lies the struggle over who controls the global energy choke point.

This is also why this conflict is particularly dangerous for the market.

The Strait of Hormuz is no ordinary waterway. About one-fifth of the world's oil flow and about one-fifth of LNG trade pass through here.

Once shipowners, insurers, and energy buyers reassess that "this place is unsafe," the risk premium on oil prices will immediately return.

More troublesome is that once oil prices rise again, inflation expectations will be ignited.

The Fed was already hawkish, and PCE cannot be suppressed. If geopolitical conflict pushes energy prices higher, risk assets will face not just a single war risk, but a triple pressure of "war + inflation + high interest rates."

Trump's remarks have also pushed the situation to a more dangerous position. He warned that if the US is forced to "complete military operations," the Iranian regime will cease to exist.

Iran, on the other hand, claims that the US strikes violate the ceasefire and threatens that the diplomatic process may completely halt.

So this is not a simple "friction within a ceasefire!"; both sides have already begun to act according to the logic of war.

Next, the three most critical things are:

First, whether ships continue to be attacked in Hormuz;

Second, whether US strikes expand from military facilities around the strait to deeper targets;

Third, whether Iran expands its retaliation from US bases to commercial shipping.

If any of these three continues to escalate, it will be difficult for the market next week to simply regard it as geopolitical noise.

Oil prices will react first, the dollar and gold will follow, and risk assets will have to face a macro environment that is even harder to trade:

The ceasefire trade is over; the war premium is back.

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