$SKYAI 48-hour crash of 48%, the support level at 0.1840 is as weak as paper. Last night, the Fed minutes turned hawkish, and the nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, crushing rate cut expectations. Bitcoin directly synchronized with US stocks, dropping 0.8%. The 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 surged to 0.72, a three-month high. You think crypto can be independent? Don't kid yourself.

First, look at the macro chain: The US Q1 nonfarm unit labor costs surged 4% quarter-on-quarter, plus the CPI expectation of 3.4% hasn't bottomed out yet. The Fed minutes, with the phrase "higher rates for longer," directly pushed the dollar index to 105.5. Gold and silver both fell 2%, crude oil dropped 3%, and even Ethereum's rolling correlation with WTI crude oil surged to 0.61. The dollar is strong, and all risk assets suffer — SKYAI, a high-beta altcoin, is the first to be drained under liquidity tightening.
Quantitative signals are clear: Using the past 72 hours of data for backtesting, when BTC's hourly drop exceeds 1.5%, SKYAI on average synchronously drops 8-12% within 45 minutes. Now BTC is teetering at $62,500. If the support at 0.1840 for SKYAI breaks, the next level is 0.1420. But there is a contradiction: SKYAI's trading volume is still high at $86M, indicating someone is accumulating on the left side. However, the frequency of major orders is severely negatively correlated with the timing of the Fed minutes release — in the 5 minutes after the release, bid depth plunged 40%.
Operationally, I'm a bit conflicted: lightly go long at 0.1850, with a strict stop loss at 0.1780 (break below previous low invalidates the rebound), first target 0.2150. But if BTC breaks 62,000 again after US stocks open tonight, immediately reverse to short, target 0.1550. Position size should not exceed 5% of total funds. Don't fight the macro headwinds.
Don't just look at the charts — crypto is now a shadow of the dollar index. If you don't watch the nonfarm payrolls and Fed minutes, you won't even understand why you're taking huge losses. I'm Lao Xu, recently using macro correlation for hedging flows. $SKYAI