$PHAROS In 24 hours, it surged 19%, but as soon as the Fed minutes came out last night, US stock futures plunged directly. Did you become a bag holder chasing this high again?

After February's non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations last night, the Fed minutes clearly hinted at "no rush to cut rates," and CME interest rate futures showed the probability of a June rate cut plummeting from 68% to 41%. The US Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 2.3% in a single day, while BTC retested the $65k support during the same period — the crypto market can never escape the knife of liquidity contraction. I ran some correlations: over the past 30 days, the 20-day rolling correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 is as high as 0.78, while the correlation between $PHAROS and BTC is 0.63. This means that as long as US stocks are under pressure from interest rate expectations, $PHAROS's rebound is as fragile as paper.
What's even more ruthless is commodities: copper prices surged to $9,000 per ton but quickly retreated, and crude oil WTI fell below $78. This round of "reflation trade" was directly doused by the minutes. Historical data shows that altcoins are 12 hours more sensitive to inflection points in copper prices than BTC (leading by a correlation coefficient of about 0.2). $PHAROS rebounded from a low of 0.4120 to 0.5197, with trading volume hitting 14.6M, but it shrank 23% compared to the previous day — a typical short-covering rebound, not new capital inflow.
In terms of trading, betting on a reversal of rate cut expectations is just throwing money away. Directly short near the resistance zone at 0.50-0.51, stop loss at 0.53, take profit first at 0.45, and keep position size within 2%. If US stocks open lower tonight and break the previous low, $PHAROS could give back 60% of its gains.
Don't just look at the charts; the Fed will be even more hawkish in its rhetoric before the next non-farm payroll data. Unless it holds above 0.55 on a weekly level, everything is a bull trap. I learned this the hard way after losing money through the past three rate hike cycles.