US Stock Market Review

I believe the main reasons for last week's US stock market decline were two-fold.
First, pension funds and institutional positions were rebalancing, so at the open, we saw selling in both storage and big tech, though storage was relatively strong and later recovered.
Second, the explosive earnings reports from storage companies made the market feel that AI capital expenditure is unsustainable, even forcing the most resilient Apple to raise prices.
So the core contradiction guiding our investment now is—whether AI CapEx is sustainable. This is the biggest point of divergence right now. We can only rely on data to argue.
The main data points are two:
1⃣ OpenAI / Anthropic’s revenue data, focusing mainly on ARR.
2⃣ The capital expenditure and earnings reports of Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
If large model revenue continues to grow, and the profit growth rates of the giants remain stable while they are willing to keep investing, then capital expenditure can be sustained.
Yesterday, Anthropic’s ARR came out.
$62 billion (net increase of about $8 billion month-over-month, compared to $15 billion in early May, with a month-over-month growth rate of 31%).
The previous data roughly looked like this:
February: $14 billion (net increase of about $5 billion month-over-month, growth rate 55%).
March: $19 billion (net increase of about $5 billion month-over-month, growth rate 36%).
April: $30 billion (net increase of about $11 billion month-over-month, growth rate +58%).
End of May: $54 billion (growth rate 80%).
Since the base is larger, it's certainly impossible to keep doubling every month like before. But I think the June data is very good. So the first risk point is cleared.
As for the second observation point, we can only wait until the earnings season in July-August to know.
For the next month, I think the index will likely be in a consolidation range, because everyone is waiting for the earnings of heavyweight stocks to determine the direction.
The main theme in recent weeks has been that the upstream of storage is feasting, while the consumers of storage are getting beaten.