Rather than shouting bull or bear every day, there are three questions I've been pondering for a long time. If I can't figure these three out, staring at the charts is just a waste of time.

First, are we at the bottom of the bear market now? Has it bottomed out?

My answer is: At least for now, the bottom cannot be confirmed.

This round of decline has been accelerating with almost no resistance. This is not what a panic bottom looks like; rather, it's a typical characteristic of institutional distribution coupled with cascading liquidations. Compared to the start of a V-shaped reversal, it resembles a prolonged period of consolidation after a descending continuation. I myself am a die-hard bull, and I'm still in the pit this time around—so I'm not saying this from a position of comfort.

Second, will altcoins go to zero completely?

They won't go to zero overnight, but decline is expected.

"Going to zero" is an emotional term. A more accurate description is structural decline and marginalization. A few mainstream assets with real revenue and use cases will survive, while the vast majority of purely speculative third-generation coins won't be killed off with one blow—they'll slowly have their liquidity drained, their attention drained, and become liquidity orphans that no one wants to buy.

Third, what is the future of crypto? Will tokenized US stocks cannibalize the altcoin market?

They won't cannibalize it completely, but they will coexist and continue to squeeze it.

Exchanges are now actively promoting US stock contracts and on-chain US stocks. The diversion of funds from the crypto space to traditional assets is a certainty. But RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) will not replace the entire crypto space; it coexists with it—what will truly be squeezed out is the speculative narrative space of altcoins. When both capital and attention can flow into Micron or on-chain SPX, who would still pick up junk coins that have no value backing?