Rather than shouting bullish or bearish every day, I’ve been pondering three questions for a long time. If these aren’t clear, staring at the charts is pointless.

First, is this the bottom of the bear market? Has it bottomed out?

My answer: at least for now, the bottom cannot be confirmed.

This decline has been accelerating with almost no resistance—it doesn’t look like a panic bottom, but rather a typical pattern of institutional distribution combined with cascading liquidations. It’s more like a prolonged consolidation after a continuation pattern than the start of a V-shaped reversal. I’m a die-hard bull myself, and I’m also caught in this round—so this isn’t said from a position of comfort.

Second, will altcoins go to zero completely?

They won’t go to zero overnight, but a decline is predictable.

“Going to zero” is an emotional term—a more accurate description is structural decline and marginalization. A few mainstream assets with real revenue and use cases can survive, but the vast majority of purely speculative third-generation coins won’t be killed off at once—they’ll slowly be drained of liquidity and attention, becoming castoff assets no one wants to buy.

Third, where is crypto heading? Will the tokenization of US stocks eat up the altcoin market?

It won’t eat it all up, but they will coexist, and it will keep squeezing.

Exchanges are now aggressively promoting US stock futures and on-chain US stocks—capital is definitely flowing from crypto to traditional assets. But RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) won’t replace the entire crypto space; it will coexist with it. What gets squeezed out is the speculative narrative space of altcoins. When capital and attention can go toward buying Meiguang and on-chain spcx, who will still buy junk coins with no value backing? #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十