Bitcoin is approaching a historically rare record: closing lower for two consecutive quarters.

It fell about 22% in Q1 and about 12% so far in Q2.
Behind this is a concentrated manifestation of structural pressures: capital is flowing from the crypto market to the AI semiconductor sector, and US data center construction spending has reached $50 billion, exceeding the total for airports, ports, and public transportation.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows, while AI-related stocks are absorbing a large amount of liquidity.
The Fed's hawkish stance pushes up the US Dollar Index, and rising real interest rates suppress all non-yielding assets.
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are falling together, and the so-called "currency debasement trade" logic is collapsing. Bitcoin is moving in tandem with precious metals during the decline, but it also faces on-chain pressures from compressed miner profit margins and the breaching of short-term holders' cost basis.
Data from CoinGecko shows that the current bear market has lasted 237 days, making it the fourth longest in history, but the maximum drawdown is only 53.4%, far lower than the previous 76%-83%.
A smaller drawdown does not mean lower risk – the participation of institutional capital may only have extended the time to clear out, rather than eliminating risk.
Whether a turnaround can occur in Q3 depends on whether ETF capital flows reverse and whether the AI investment frenzy sees a temporary cooldown. The current market structure does not support a V-shaped rebound; it is more likely to oscillate repeatedly in the bottom zone until some structural pressure is digested.
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